TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13091699
Played Sep 8Finished
Lukas Velicka
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
411116117811911
Radim Adam
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:56 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLukas Velicka to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLukas Velicka above · Radim Adam below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 89 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Lukas Velicka at 54.0%
89 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Velicka 4–3 Radim Adam Radim Adam has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:56What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Velicka
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-3 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Velicka 1530 vs Adam 1580
Adam
Correct
both rated, 50 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Velicka 20% vs Adam 80%
Adam
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Velicka 40% vs Adam 70%
Adam
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Velicka +1 · Adam +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Velicka)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Adam form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVelicka 1.73 / Adam 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Adam)-0.3pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13091699
Velicka1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 42 of 68
Up 2–0, closes it94% 15 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it71% 25 of 35
Adam2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog47% won 38 of 81
Down 0–1, comes back31% 14 of 45
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeVelicka4wins
AwayAdam3wins
2 of 7 to a deciderVelicka leads 4–3, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVelicka75%3 of 4
AwayAdam66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Velicka4Adam3n = 7Velicka took 4 of 7
S2Velicka4Adam3n = 7Velicka took 4 of 7
S3Velicka3Adam4n = 7Adam took 4 of 7
S4Velicka4Adam3n = 7Velicka took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home343%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricVelickaAdamV − ABasisWins43+1in 7 meetingsFirst set43+1of 7Avg pointsper match40.443.6−3.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVelickaAdamBasisWin rate · lifetime104 / 198 vs 193 / 37152.5%52%104 / 198 vs 193 / 371Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.638.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VelickaVelicka 1.73/Adam 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Velicka · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Adam won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LJun 7 · 18:00L. Velicka—51311562R. Adam—1111911113
WApr 24 · 12:00L. Velicka—11711143R. Adam—7119121
WApr 1 · 19:30L. Velicka—121111113R. Adam—1071391
WMar 4 · 20:00L. Velicka—11124113R. Adam—5101171
LMar 3 · 21:30L. Velicka—861241R. Adam—111110113
LJan 9 · 10:00L. Velicka—116961R. Adam—91111113
WJan 9 · 07:30L. Velicka—5161211113R. Adam—111414982
L. Velicka10
WSep 8 · 19:00T. Milota2.38651161L. Velicka1.5311116113WSep 7 · 16:59O. Hradil1.61111181192L. Velicka2.20138113113LSep 7 · 16:30L. Velicka1.618970O. Hradil2.201111113LSep 7 · 15:00L. Velicka2.00771181J. Levicky1.7311119113LSep 7 · 14:00R. Vavrecka1.911011411113L. Velicka1.8012311862LSep 4 · 21:28J. Levicky1.801111113L. Velicka1.915790LSep 4 · 20:00J. Levicky1.73111238113L. Velicka2.00310111192WSep 4 · 19:00T. Milota2.25871191L. Velicka1.5711119113WSep 4 · 18:30L. Velicka1.671110117113J. Hrabec2.1071271152WSep 2 · 21:30L. Velicka1.60111011113T. Milota2.20812981
R. Adam10
LSep 8 · 19:30R. Adam2.201179111R. Vavrecka1.6141111133WSep 6 · 17:30M. Blejchar1.73118811122R. Adam2.00711115143LSep 6 · 16:00R. Adam1.8310111051M. Blejchar1.8312912113WSep 6 · 15:30V. Bosak3.5051080R. Adam1.281112113WSep 6 · 14:00R. Adam1.571117113P. Hanel2.2581580WSep 2 · 13:30P. Osvald1.5071211952R. Adam2.451110511113LSep 2 · 12:00R. Adam2.507116101P. Osvald1.5011411123WSep 2 · 11:30M. Koral1.5081080R. Adam2.501112113WSep 2 · 10:00R. Adam1.251012112113V. Bosak3.75121071192LAug 29 · 21:30R. Adam1.41711961P. Hanel2.5011311113
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