TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13070687
Played Sep 4Finished
Lukas Velicka
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1171012117711115
Jan Hrabec
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:58 and never touched — 63.9% is still 63.9%
Graded at full timeLukas Velicka to win
63.9%
63.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Velicka above · Jan Hrabec below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 92 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Lukas Velicka at 63.9%
92 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Velicka 5–1 Jan Hrabec Jan Hrabec has won 1 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:58What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Velicka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-1 in 6
Velicka
Correct
gap of 4 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Velicka 1559 vs Hrabec 1621
Hrabec
Wrong
both rated, 62 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Velicka 80% vs Hrabec 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Velicka 80% vs Hrabec 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Velicka +1 · Hrabec +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Velicka) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hrabec form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVelicka 1.67 / Hrabec 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Velicka)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13070687
Velicka1.67
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 40 of 65
Up 2–0, closes it93% 14 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it72% 23 of 32
Hrabec2.10
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog44% won 27 of 62
Down 0–1, comes back21% 7 of 33
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeVelicka5wins
AwayHrabec1wins
3 of 6 to a deciderVelicka leads 5–1, and 3 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVelicka100%4 of 4
AwayHrabecn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Velicka4Hrabec2n = 6Velicka took 4 of 6
S2Velicka4Hrabec2n = 6Velicka took 4 of 6
S3Velicka3Hrabec3n = 6split evenly
S4Velicka2Hrabec4n = 6Hrabec took 4 of 6
S5Velicka3Hrabec0n = 3Velicka took 3 of 3
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home350%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricVelickaHrabecV − HBasisWins51+4in 6 meetingsFirst set42+2of 6Avg pointsper match46.741.8+4.9per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVelickaHrabecBasisWin rate · lifetime101 / 190 vs 138 / 24853.2%55.7%101 / 190 vs 138 / 248Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.738.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VelickaVelicka 1.67/Hrabec 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57%
Velicka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Velicka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WAug 27 · 20:00L. Velicka—128118113J. Hrabec—101181142
WApr 20 · 19:00L. Velicka—81111113J. Hrabec—116881
WApr 8 · 21:00L. Velicka—1213109133J. Hrabec—10111211112
WApr 8 · 20:30L. Velicka—111111113J. Hrabec—761351
WApr 5 · 18:00L. Velicka—111189113J. Hrabec—86111182
LMar 30 · 20:30L. Velicka—991371J. Hrabec—111111113
L. Velicka10
LSep 4 · 21:28J. Levicky1.801111113L. Velicka1.915790LSep 4 · 20:00J. Levicky1.73111238113L. Velicka2.00310111192WSep 4 · 19:00T. Milota2.25871191L. Velicka1.5711119113WSep 2 · 21:30L. Velicka1.60111011113T. Milota2.20812981LSep 2 · 20:30T. Milota2.3811119113L. Velicka1.53891161WSep 2 · 19:30L. Velicka2.255111111123D. Oborny1.57119137102WSep 2 · 18:30J. Levicky1.44641161L. Velicka2.6311115113WAug 30 · 21:30L. Velicka1.95126312113M. Koral1.751011111082WAug 30 · 20:00M. Blejchar1.91591111102L. Velicka1.80111167123WAug 30 · 19:00M. Koral1.7311961292L. Velicka2.007111110113
J. Hrabec10
LSep 5 · 17:32J. Hrabec1.55861141R. Guliak2.2511112113WSep 5 · 16:00J. Hrabec1.61741111113P. Osvald2.2011116542LSep 5 · 15:30R. Guliak2.7511611113J. Hrabec1.40911771WSep 5 · 14:00J. Hrabec1.441211113M. Blejchar2.6310660WSep 4 · 20:58J. Hrabec1.57511117113T. Milota2.2511931142WSep 4 · 20:30T. Milota2.10571151J. Hrabec1.6711117113LSep 4 · 19:30J. Hrabec2.208690J. Levicky1.611111113WAug 27 · 21:30T. Milota1.6331191132J. Hrabec2.13117119113LAug 27 · 20:00L. Velicka1.57128118113J. Hrabec2.25101181142WAug 27 · 19:00T. Milota1.73911111192J. Hrabec2.00111372113
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