TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13049683
Played Aug 30Finished
Lukas Velicka
Home
1.95
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
12106113111210118
Michal Koral
Away
1.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:12 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Koral to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingLukas Velicka above · Michal Koral below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 94 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Michal Koral at 54.0%
94 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Velicka 2–3 Michal Koral Lukas Velicka has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:12What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.75 (53%)
Koral
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Velicka 1524 vs Koral 1526
Koral
Wrong
both rated, 2 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Velicka 80% vs Koral 60%
Velicka
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Velicka 70% vs Koral 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Velicka +3 · Koral +1
Velicka
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Koral)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Velicka form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (51%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVelicka 1.95 / Koral 1.75
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Koral)+1.3pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13049683
Velicka1.95
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog40% won 23 of 57
Down 0–1, comes back24% 8 of 34
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 16
Koral1.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite59% won 40 of 68
Up 2–0, closes it86% 24 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it73% 33 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeVelicka2wins
AwayKoral3wins
2 of 5 to a deciderKoral leads 3–2, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVelickan = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayKoral75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Velicka1Koral4n = 5Koral took 4 of 5
S2Velicka3Koral2n = 5Velicka took 3 of 5
S3Velicka2Koral3n = 5Koral took 3 of 5
S4Velicka0Koral4n = 4Koral took 4 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home240%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away240%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricVelickaKoralV − KBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set14−3of 5Avg pointsper match37.242.4−5.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVelickaKoralBasisWin rate · lifetime97 / 185 vs 101 / 19252.4%52.6%97 / 185 vs 101 / 192Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.637.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KoralVelicka 1.95/Koral 1.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Koral · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Velicka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WAug 30 · 19:00L. Velicka—7111110113M. Koral—11961292
LApr 1 · 21:28L. Velicka—8590M. Koral—1111113
WApr 1 · 18:30L. Velicka—1111109123M. Koral—781211102
LMar 17 · 22:30L. Velicka—781141M. Koral—11119113
LMar 17 · 19:00L. Velicka—811661M. Koral—11911113
L. Velicka10
LSep 4 · 21:28J. Levicky1.801111113L. Velicka1.915790LSep 4 · 20:00J. Levicky1.73111238113L. Velicka2.00310111192WSep 4 · 19:00T. Milota2.25871191L. Velicka1.5711119113WSep 4 · 18:30L. Velicka1.671110117113J. Hrabec2.1071271152WSep 2 · 21:30L. Velicka1.60111011113T. Milota2.20812981LSep 2 · 20:30T. Milota2.3811119113L. Velicka1.53891161WSep 2 · 19:30L. Velicka2.255111111123D. Oborny1.57119137102WSep 2 · 18:30J. Levicky1.44641161L. Velicka2.6311115113WAug 30 · 20:00M. Blejchar1.91591111102L. Velicka1.80111167123WAug 30 · 19:00M. Koral1.7311961292L. Velicka2.007111110113
M. Koral10
WSep 2 · 13:24V. Bosak3.4091191192M. Koral1.30116119113LSep 2 · 12:30V. Bosak1.80811913113M. Koral1.91112111162LSep 2 · 11:30M. Koral1.5081080R. Adam2.501112113WSep 2 · 10:30P. Osvald2.6321112882M. Koral1.441191011113WAug 31 · 13:00T. Milkov1.7381191172M. Koral2.00118115113LAug 31 · 12:00M. Koral1.9111811772T. Milkov1.80711911113LAug 31 · 11:30I. Taichman2.00111178113M. Koral1.7355111182LAug 31 · 10:00M. Koral1.73661181V. Bosak2.0011115113WAug 30 · 20:30M. Koral1.80119119113V. Bosak1.9191181122LAug 30 · 19:00M. Koral1.7311961292L. Velicka2.007111110113
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