TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13058379
Played Sep 2Finished
Petr Osvald
Home
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
2111191210811811
Michal Koral
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:43 and never touched — 57.4% is still 57.4%
Graded at full timeMichal Koral to win
57.4%
57.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr Osvald above · Michal Koral below
Set 1 · 2-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 93 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Michal Koral at 57.4%
93 points played in total.
H2H Petr Osvald 2–7 Michal Koral Petr Osvald has won 2 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:43What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Koral
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-7 in 9
Koral
Correct
gap of 5 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Osvald 1506 vs Koral 1486
Osvald
Wrong
both rated, 20 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Osvald 40% vs Koral 20%
Osvald
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Osvald 50% vs Koral 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Osvald +1 · Koral +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Koral) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Koral form (20%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOsvald 2.63 / Koral 1.44
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Koral)+1.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13058379
Osvald2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog38% won 28 of 73
Down 0–1, comes back21% 9 of 44
Down 0–2, comes back13% 3 of 23
Koral1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite56% won 40 of 72
Up 2–0, closes it85% 23 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it72% 33 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeOsvald2wins
AwayKoral7wins
3 of 9 to a deciderKoral leads 7–2, and 3 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOsvaldn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayKoral85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Osvald2Koral7n = 9Koral took 7 of 9
S2Osvald1Koral8n = 9Koral took 8 of 9
S3Osvald3Koral6n = 9Koral took 6 of 9
S4Osvald3Koral1n = 4Osvald took 3 of 4
S5Osvald1Koral2n = 3Koral took 2 of 3
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home111%
3–2Decider, home111%
2–3Decider, away222%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away556%
These 9 meetings
MetricOsvaldKoralO − KBasisWins27−5in 9 meetingsFirst set27−5of 9Avg pointsper match33.338.6−5.3per matchSweeps05−53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOsvaldKoralBasisWin rate · lifetime100 / 203 vs 102 / 19749.3%51.8%100 / 203 vs 102 / 197Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.437.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KoralOsvald 2.63/Koral 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.1%
Koral · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Koral won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LAug 12 · 19:00P. Osvald—69180M. Koral—1111203
WJun 9 · 09:04P. Osvald—761111113M. Koral—11116972
LJun 9 · 07:00P. Osvald—51260M. Koral—1114113
LMay 16 · 16:00P. Osvald—12711472M. Koral—1011511113
LMay 12 · 07:00P. Osvald—5680M. Koral—1111113
WMay 3 · 18:30P. Osvald—11911113M. Koral—411541
LApr 18 · 10:30P. Osvald—111160M. Koral—1313113
LApr 13 · 21:30P. Osvald—121181192M. Koral—149115113
LApr 13 · 20:30P. Osvald—8270M. Koral—1111113
P. Osvald10
WSep 5 · 16:59P. Osvald1.6513116113M. Blejchar2.051141171LSep 5 · 16:00J. Hrabec1.61741111113P. Osvald2.2011116542WSep 5 · 15:00M. Blejchar2.2041113332P. Osvald1.611181111113LSep 5 · 14:30P. Osvald1.53101191172R. Guliak2.38127119113LSep 2 · 13:30P. Osvald1.5071211952R. Adam2.451110511113WSep 2 · 12:00R. Adam2.507116101P. Osvald1.5011411123WSep 2 · 11:00V. Bosak1.919950P. Osvald1.801111113WAug 27 · 21:00L. Velicka1.6781341292P. Osvald2.1011111110113LAug 27 · 20:30T. Milota1.611111123P. Osvald2.2064100LAug 27 · 19:30P. Osvald2.0011911772L. Velicka1.73911811113
M. Koral10
WSep 2 · 13:24V. Bosak3.4091191192M. Koral1.30116119113LSep 2 · 12:30V. Bosak1.80811913113M. Koral1.91112111162LSep 2 · 11:30M. Koral1.5081080R. Adam2.501112113WAug 31 · 13:00T. Milkov1.7381191172M. Koral2.00118115113LAug 31 · 12:00M. Koral1.9111811772T. Milkov1.80711911113LAug 31 · 11:30I. Taichman2.00111178113M. Koral1.7355111182LAug 31 · 10:00M. Koral1.73661181V. Bosak2.0011115113LAug 30 · 21:30L. Velicka1.95126312113M. Koral1.751011111082WAug 30 · 20:30M. Koral1.80119119113V. Bosak1.9191181122LAug 30 · 19:00M. Koral1.7311961292L. Velicka2.007111110113
Upcoming Matches
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