TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13058933
Played Sep 2Finished
Vitezslav Bosak
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
8111129111311116
Michal Koral
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:04 and never touched — 63.5% is still 63.5%
Graded at full timeVitezslav Bosak to win
63.5%
63.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVitezslav Bosak above · Michal Koral below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-2
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 13-11
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 93 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Vitezslav Bosak at 63.5%
93 points played in total.
H2H Vitezslav Bosak 7–4 Michal Koral Michal Koral has won 4 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:04What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Bosak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-4 in 11
Bosak
Correct
gap of 3 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bosak 1462 vs Koral 1474
Koral
Wrong
both rated, 13 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bosak 60% vs Koral 40%
Bosak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bosak 50% vs Koral 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Bosak -2 · Koral -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Bosak) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Koral form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBosak 1.80 / Koral 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Bosak)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13058933
Bosak1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite64% won 80 of 125
Up 2–0, closes it87% 41 of 47
Up 1–0, closes it79% 61 of 77
Koral1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 30 of 70
Down 0–1, comes back23% 8 of 35
Down 0–2, comes back13% 3 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBosak6wins
AwayKoral4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderBosak leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBosak83.3%5 of 6
AwayKoral66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bosak6Koral3n = 9Bosak took 6 of 9
S2Bosak7Koral2n = 9Bosak took 7 of 9
S3Bosak3Koral6n = 9Koral took 6 of 9
S4Bosak4Koral2n = 6Bosak took 4 of 6
S5Bosak2Koral2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBosakKoralB − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set63+3of 9Avg pointsper match39.236.7+2.5per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBosakKoralBasisWin rate · lifetime175 / 348 vs 103 / 20050.3%51.5%175 / 348 vs 103 / 200Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BosakBosak 1.80/Koral 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Bosak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Bosak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 2 · 12:30V. Bosak—811913113M. Koral—112111162
WAug 31 · 10:00V. Bosak—11115113M. Koral—661181
LAug 30 · 20:30V. Bosak—91181122M. Koral—119119113
LMay 28 · 08:00V. Bosak—9650M. Koral—1111113
LMar 10 · 09:59V. Bosak—124111182M. Koral—1011513113
WMar 10 · 09:30V. Bosak—1211310123M. Koral—1091112102
WMar 1 · 21:00V. Bosak—1111113M. Koral—5460
WOct 19 · 21:21V. Bosak—13126113M. Koral—11101161
WOct 19 · 18:30V. Bosak—1111113M. Koral—9280
V. Bosak10
LSep 6 · 17:03P. Hanel1.1711811113V. Bosak4.50411651LSep 6 · 16:30P. Hanel1.531111113V. Bosak2.387990LSep 6 · 15:30V. Bosak3.5051080R. Adam1.281112113LSep 6 · 14:30M. Blejchar1.4411119113V. Bosak2.63351181LSep 3 · 09:03V. Cerny1.531011119113V. Bosak2.3812451192LSep 3 · 08:00M. Blejchar1.501111113V. Bosak2.508970LSep 3 · 07:00F. Zurek2.38111110113V. Bosak1.53491241LSep 3 · 06:30V. Bosak1.7311891152V. Cerny2.00711116113LSep 2 · 13:24V. Bosak3.4091191192M. Koral1.30116119113LSep 2 · 11:00V. Bosak1.919950P. Osvald1.801111113
M. Koral10
WSep 2 · 13:24V. Bosak3.4091191192M. Koral1.30116119113LSep 2 · 11:30M. Koral1.5081080R. Adam2.501112113WSep 2 · 10:30P. Osvald2.6321112882M. Koral1.441191011113WAug 31 · 13:00T. Milkov1.7381191172M. Koral2.00118115113LAug 31 · 12:00M. Koral1.9111811772T. Milkov1.80711911113LAug 31 · 11:30I. Taichman2.00111178113M. Koral1.7355111182LAug 31 · 10:00M. Koral1.73661181V. Bosak2.0011115113LAug 30 · 21:30L. Velicka1.95126312113M. Koral1.751011111082WAug 30 · 20:30M. Koral1.80119119113V. Bosak1.9191181122LAug 30 · 19:00M. Koral1.7311961292L. Velicka2.007111110113
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