TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13047774
Played Aug 31Finished
Michal Koral
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
117811119711711
Tomas Milkov
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:09 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Koral to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMichal Koral above · Tomas Milkov below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 93 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Michal Koral at 54.0%
93 points played in total.
H2H Michal Koral 3–2 Tomas Milkov Tomas Milkov has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:09What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Milkov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Koral 1487 vs Milkov 1461
Koral
Wrong
both rated, 26 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Koral 20% vs Milkov 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Koral 40% vs Milkov 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Koral -3 · Milkov -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Milkov) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Milkov form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKoral 1.91 / Milkov 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Milkov)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13047774
Koral1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 30 of 70
Down 0–1, comes back22% 8 of 36
Down 0–2, comes back12% 3 of 25
Milkov1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite67% won 24 of 36
Up 2–0, closes it94% 17 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it95% 19 of 20
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeKoral3wins
AwayMilkov2wins
3 of 5 to a deciderKoral leads 3–2, and 3 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKoraln = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayMilkov33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Koral2Milkov3n = 5Milkov took 3 of 5
S2Koral3Milkov2n = 5Koral took 3 of 5
S3Koral2Milkov3n = 5Milkov took 3 of 5
S4Koral1Milkov4n = 5Milkov took 4 of 5
S5Koral3Milkov0n = 3Koral took 3 of 3
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home360%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away240%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricKoralMilkovK − MBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match44.644.4+0.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKoralMilkovBasisWin rate · lifetime101 / 195 vs 84 / 16851.8%50%101 / 195 vs 84 / 168Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MilkovKoral 1.91/Milkov 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Milkov · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Milkov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LAug 27 · 20:00M. Koral—1149111T. Milkov—71111133
WJul 7 · 09:00M. Koral—8111110113T. Milkov—11791262
WJul 7 · 07:00M. Koral—1311911113T. Milkov—15911852
WMay 11 · 11:30M. Koral—1111911113T. Milkov—86111382
LMar 16 · 09:00M. Koral—981111T. Milkov—11118113
M. Koral10
WSep 2 · 13:24V. Bosak3.4091191192M. Koral1.30116119113LSep 2 · 12:30V. Bosak1.80811913113M. Koral1.91112111162LSep 2 · 11:30M. Koral1.5081080R. Adam2.501112113WSep 2 · 10:30P. Osvald2.6321112882M. Koral1.441191011113WAug 31 · 13:00T. Milkov1.7381191172M. Koral2.00118115113LAug 31 · 11:30I. Taichman2.00111178113M. Koral1.7355111182LAug 31 · 10:00M. Koral1.73661181V. Bosak2.0011115113LAug 30 · 21:30L. Velicka1.95126312113M. Koral1.751011111082WAug 30 · 20:30M. Koral1.80119119113V. Bosak1.9191181122LAug 30 · 19:00M. Koral1.7311961292L. Velicka2.007111110113
T. Milkov10
LAug 31 · 13:00T. Milkov1.7381191172M. Koral2.00118115113LAug 31 · 11:00V. Bosak2.0071111113T. Milkov1.73115731LAug 31 · 10:30T. Milkov1.83105111192I. Taichman1.83121159113LAug 27 · 21:30R. Adam1.5311118113T. Milkov2.35661181WAug 27 · 20:00M. Koral1.831149111T. Milkov1.8371111133LAug 27 · 19:00R. Adam1.7311129123T. Milkov2.0071011101WAug 27 · 18:30T. Milkov1.91111313113I. Taichman1.8013111181LAug 18 · 21:30T. Milkov1.538990P. Hanel2.381111113WAug 18 · 20:30T. Milkov1.611511143P. Hanel2.20136120WAug 18 · 19:00T. Milkov1.618111112113T. Kraninger2.20119131072
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