TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13032531
Played Aug 27Finished
Radim Adam
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
116116811118––
Tomas Milkov
Away
2.35
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:11 and never touched — 55.2% is still 55.2%
Graded at full timeRadim Adam to win
55.2%
55.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRadim Adam above · Tomas Milkov below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 72 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Radim Adam at 55.2%
72 points played in total.
H2H Radim Adam 8–6 Tomas Milkov Tomas Milkov has won 6 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:11What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Adam
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-6 in 14
Adam
Correct
gap of 2 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Adam 1521 vs Milkov 1518
Adam
Correct
both rated, 3 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Adam 80% vs Milkov 60%
Adam
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Adam 60% vs Milkov 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Adam +2 · Milkov +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Adam) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Milkov form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (43%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAdam 1.53 / Milkov 2.35
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Adam)-2.4pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13032531
Adam1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite53% won 51 of 97
Up 2–0, closes it86% 25 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it76% 37 of 49
Milkov2.35
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog34% won 19 of 56
Down 0–1, comes back13% 4 of 32
Down 0–2, comes back11% 2 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAdam7wins
AwayMilkov3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderAdam leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAdam85.7%6 of 7
AwayMilkov66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Adam7Milkov3n = 10Adam took 7 of 10
S2Adam5Milkov5n = 10split evenly
S3Adam8Milkov2n = 10Adam took 8 of 10
S4Adam5Milkov3n = 8Adam took 5 of 8
S5Adam2Milkov3n = 5Milkov took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricAdamMilkovA − MBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match42.538.6+3.9per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAdamMilkovBasisWin rate · lifetime186 / 365 vs 84 / 16551%50.9%186 / 365 vs 84 / 165Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.738.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AdamAdam 1.53/Milkov 2.35
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.2%
Adam · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Adam won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 27 · 19:00R. Adam—11129123T. Milkov—71011101
WAug 13 · 21:30R. Adam—117114113T. Milkov—51171172
WAug 13 · 18:00R. Adam—61111113T. Milkov—119571
WAug 9 · 16:30R. Adam—1111113T. Milkov—9880
WMar 11 · 07:30R. Adam—11811113T. Milkov—611551
LMar 8 · 13:30R. Adam—1111111372T. Milkov—1313611103
LFeb 25 · 15:30R. Adam—61141182T. Milkov—117118113
WFeb 20 · 22:30R. Adam—114118113T. Milkov—61141182
WFeb 20 · 21:00R. Adam—1112113T. Milkov—91070
LJan 25 · 09:00R. Adam—16811892T. Milkov—1411911113
R. Adam10
WSep 6 · 17:30M. Blejchar1.73118811122R. Adam2.00711115143LSep 6 · 16:00R. Adam1.8310111051M. Blejchar1.8312912113WSep 6 · 15:30V. Bosak3.5051080R. Adam1.281112113WSep 6 · 14:00R. Adam1.571117113P. Hanel2.2581580WSep 2 · 13:30P. Osvald1.5071211952R. Adam2.451110511113LSep 2 · 12:00R. Adam2.507116101P. Osvald1.5011411123WSep 2 · 11:30M. Koral1.5081080R. Adam2.501112113WSep 2 · 10:00R. Adam1.251012112113V. Bosak3.75121071192LAug 29 · 21:30R. Adam1.41711961P. Hanel2.5011311113WAug 29 · 20:00I. Taichman2.101171091R. Adam1.6781112113
T. Milkov10
LAug 31 · 13:00T. Milkov1.7381191172M. Koral2.00118115113WAug 31 · 12:00M. Koral1.9111811772T. Milkov1.80711911113LAug 31 · 11:00V. Bosak2.0071111113T. Milkov1.73115731LAug 31 · 10:30T. Milkov1.83105111192I. Taichman1.83121159113WAug 27 · 20:00M. Koral1.831149111T. Milkov1.8371111133LAug 27 · 19:00R. Adam1.7311129123T. Milkov2.0071011101WAug 27 · 18:30T. Milkov1.91111313113I. Taichman1.8013111181LAug 18 · 21:30T. Milkov1.538990P. Hanel2.381111113WAug 18 · 20:30T. Milkov1.611511143P. Hanel2.20136120WAug 18 · 19:00T. Milkov1.618111112113T. Kraninger2.20119131072
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