TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13058930
Played Sep 2Finished
Michal Koral
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
8111012811––––
Radim Adam
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:05 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRadim Adam to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Koral above · Radim Adam below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 60 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Radim Adam at 54.0%
60 points played in total.
H2H Michal Koral 7–2 Radim Adam Radim Adam has won 2 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:05What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Koral
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-2 in 9
Koral
Wrong
gap of 5 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Koral 1497 vs Adam 1557
Adam
Correct
both rated, 60 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Koral 40% vs Adam 80%
Adam
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Koral 50% vs Adam 80%
Adam
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Koral +2 · Adam +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Koral) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Adam form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKoral 1.50 / Adam 2.50
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Koral)-1.2pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13058930
Koral1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite56% won 40 of 72
Up 2–0, closes it85% 23 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it72% 33 of 46
Adam2.50
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog46% won 38 of 83
Down 0–1, comes back31% 14 of 45
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeKoral7wins
AwayAdam2wins
2 of 9 to a deciderKoral leads 7–2, and 2 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKoral100%5 of 5
AwayAdam50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Koral5Adam4n = 9Koral took 5 of 9
S2Koral7Adam2n = 9Koral took 7 of 9
S3Koral6Adam3n = 9Koral took 6 of 9
S4Koral3Adam4n = 7Adam took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home222%
3–1Four sets, home333%
3–2Decider, home222%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away222%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 9 meetings
MetricKoralAdamK − ABasisWins72+5in 9 meetingsFirst set54+1of 9Avg pointsper match38.334.6+3.7per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKoralAdamBasisWin rate · lifetime103 / 198 vs 189 / 36752%51.5%103 / 198 vs 189 / 367Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KoralKoral 1.50/Adam 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.3%
Koral · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Adam won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WAug 27 · 18:00M. Koral—12119133R. Adam—10511111
WMay 29 · 11:00M. Koral—41111113R. Adam—116651
LMay 28 · 12:00M. Koral—411771R. Adam—11511113
WMay 11 · 17:30M. Koral—11911113R. Adam—911671
WMay 11 · 14:30M. Koral—1111113R. Adam—7690
WApr 19 · 11:00M. Koral—1111113R. Adam—8960
WApr 18 · 15:00M. Koral—115119113R. Adam—71191172
LApr 2 · 20:30M. Koral—911451R. Adam—11511113
WApr 1 · 20:00M. Koral—811119113R. Adam—11971192
M. Koral10
WSep 2 · 13:24V. Bosak3.4091191192M. Koral1.30116119113LSep 2 · 12:30V. Bosak1.80811913113M. Koral1.91112111162WSep 2 · 10:30P. Osvald2.6321112882M. Koral1.441191011113WAug 31 · 13:00T. Milkov1.7381191172M. Koral2.00118115113LAug 31 · 12:00M. Koral1.9111811772T. Milkov1.80711911113LAug 31 · 11:30I. Taichman2.00111178113M. Koral1.7355111182LAug 31 · 10:00M. Koral1.73661181V. Bosak2.0011115113LAug 30 · 21:30L. Velicka1.95126312113M. Koral1.751011111082WAug 30 · 20:30M. Koral1.80119119113V. Bosak1.9191181122LAug 30 · 19:00M. Koral1.7311961292L. Velicka2.007111110113
R. Adam10
WSep 6 · 17:30M. Blejchar1.73118811122R. Adam2.00711115143LSep 6 · 16:00R. Adam1.8310111051M. Blejchar1.8312912113WSep 6 · 15:30V. Bosak3.5051080R. Adam1.281112113WSep 6 · 14:00R. Adam1.571117113P. Hanel2.2581580WSep 2 · 13:30P. Osvald1.5071211952R. Adam2.451110511113LSep 2 · 12:00R. Adam2.507116101P. Osvald1.5011411123WSep 2 · 10:00R. Adam1.251012112113V. Bosak3.75121071192LAug 29 · 21:30R. Adam1.41711961P. Hanel2.5011311113WAug 29 · 20:00I. Taichman2.101171091R. Adam1.6781112113WAug 29 · 19:00P. Hanel2.63741281R. Adam1.44111110113
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