TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13042212
Played Aug 30Finished
Michal Koral
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1179116111210911
Lukas Velicka
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:14 and never touched — 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeMichal Koral to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMichal Koral above · Lukas Velicka below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 8-6
Point 91 set 5, 8-6 — our read held Michal Koral at 57.7%
91 points drawn · the score is 6 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Michal Koral 3–1 Lukas Velicka Lukas Velicka has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:14What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Koral
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Koral
Wrong
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Koral 1512 vs Velicka 1501
Koral
Wrong
both rated, 11 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Koral 60% vs Velicka 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Koral 50% vs Velicka 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Koral +2 · Velicka +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Koral) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKoral 1.73 / Velicka 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Koral)+0.3pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13042212
Koral1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite59% won 40 of 68
Up 2–0, closes it86% 24 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it73% 33 of 45
Velicka2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 23 of 57
Down 0–1, comes back24% 8 of 34
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 16
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeKoral3wins
AwayVelicka1wins
1 of 4 to a deciderKoral leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKoral100%3 of 3
AwayVelickan = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Koral3Velicka1n = 4Koral took 3 of 4
S2Koral2Velicka2n = 4split evenly
S3Koral3Velicka1n = 4Koral took 3 of 4
S4Koral3Velicka0n = 3Koral took 3 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home250%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricKoralVelickaK − VBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match41.234.0+7.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKoralVelickaBasisWin rate · lifetime100 / 190 vs 95 / 18352.6%51.9%100 / 190 vs 95 / 183Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.639.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KoralKoral 1.73/Velicka 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Koral · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Velicka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WApr 1 · 21:28M. Koral—1111113L. Velicka—8590
LApr 1 · 18:30M. Koral—781211102L. Velicka—1111109123
WMar 17 · 22:30M. Koral—11119113L. Velicka—781141
WMar 17 · 19:00M. Koral—11911113L. Velicka—811661
M. Koral10
WSep 2 · 13:24V. Bosak3.4091191192M. Koral1.30116119113LSep 2 · 12:30V. Bosak1.80811913113M. Koral1.91112111162LSep 2 · 11:30M. Koral1.5081080R. Adam2.501112113WSep 2 · 10:30P. Osvald2.6321112882M. Koral1.441191011113WAug 31 · 13:00T. Milkov1.7381191172M. Koral2.00118115113LAug 31 · 12:00M. Koral1.9111811772T. Milkov1.80711911113LAug 31 · 11:30I. Taichman2.00111178113M. Koral1.7355111182LAug 31 · 10:00M. Koral1.73661181V. Bosak2.0011115113LAug 30 · 21:30L. Velicka1.95126312113M. Koral1.751011111082WAug 30 · 20:30M. Koral1.80119119113V. Bosak1.9191181122
L. Velicka10
LSep 4 · 21:28J. Levicky1.801111113L. Velicka1.915790LSep 4 · 20:00J. Levicky1.73111238113L. Velicka2.00310111192WSep 4 · 19:00T. Milota2.25871191L. Velicka1.5711119113WSep 4 · 18:30L. Velicka1.671110117113J. Hrabec2.1071271152WSep 2 · 21:30L. Velicka1.60111011113T. Milota2.20812981LSep 2 · 20:30T. Milota2.3811119113L. Velicka1.53891161WSep 2 · 19:30L. Velicka2.255111111123D. Oborny1.57119137102WSep 2 · 18:30J. Levicky1.44641161L. Velicka2.6311115113WAug 30 · 21:30L. Velicka1.95126312113M. Koral1.751011111082WAug 30 · 20:00M. Blejchar1.91591111102L. Velicka1.80111167123
Upcoming Matches
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L. Velicka
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