TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13059653
Played Sep 2Finished
Lukas Velicka
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
51111911131171210
Dominik Oborny
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:13 and never touched — 60.9% is still 60.9%
Graded at full timeDominik Oborny to win
60.9%
60.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingLukas Velicka above · Dominik Oborny below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 100 set 5, 12-10 — our read held Dominik Oborny at 60.9%
100 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Velicka 4–8 Dominik Oborny Lukas Velicka has won 4 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 16:13What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Oborny
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-8 in 12
Oborny
Wrong
gap of 4 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Velicka 1549 vs Oborny 1649
Oborny
Wrong
both rated, 100 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Velicka 80% vs Oborny 40%
Velicka
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Velicka 80% vs Oborny 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Velicka +4 · Oborny +2
Velicka
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Oborny)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Oborny form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVelicka 2.25 / Oborny 1.57
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Oborny)+2.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13059653
Velicka2.25
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog43% won 24 of 56
Down 0–1, comes back27% 9 of 33
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 14
Oborny1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite63% won 102 of 162
Up 2–0, closes it94% 60 of 64
Up 1–0, closes it84% 88 of 105
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVelicka4wins
AwayOborny6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderOborny leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVelicka66.7%2 of 3
AwayOborny71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Velicka3Oborny7n = 10Oborny took 7 of 10
S2Velicka5Oborny5n = 10split evenly
S3Velicka3Oborny7n = 10Oborny took 7 of 10
S4Velicka2Oborny6n = 8Oborny took 6 of 8
S5Velicka4Oborny1n = 5Velicka took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricVelickaObornyV − OBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match37.542.4−4.9per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVelickaObornyBasisWin rate · lifetime98 / 186 vs 314 / 60752.7%51.7%98 / 186 vs 314 / 607Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.737.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ObornyVelicka 2.25/Oborny 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.9%
Oborny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Velicka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 7 · 19:30L. Velicka—111199113D. Oborny—76111192
LJun 21 · 21:30L. Velicka—511621D. Oborny—11811113
WJun 21 · 18:30L. Velicka—911211113D. Oborny—11711792
LJun 14 · 20:30L. Velicka—9960D. Oborny—1111113
LMay 28 · 18:00L. Velicka—71111742D. Oborny—119911113
WMay 14 · 20:58L. Velicka—711138113D. Oborny—117111182
LMay 14 · 19:00L. Velicka—1111891D. Oborny—91311113
LApr 28 · 20:30L. Velicka—4790D. Oborny—1111113
WJan 30 · 08:30L. Velicka—117911113D. Oborny—61111772
LOct 23 · 09:30L. Velicka—881261D. Oborny—111110113
L. Velicka10
LSep 4 · 21:28J. Levicky1.801111113L. Velicka1.915790LSep 4 · 20:00J. Levicky1.73111238113L. Velicka2.00310111192WSep 4 · 19:00T. Milota2.25871191L. Velicka1.5711119113WSep 4 · 18:30L. Velicka1.671110117113J. Hrabec2.1071271152WSep 2 · 21:30L. Velicka1.60111011113T. Milota2.20812981LSep 2 · 20:30T. Milota2.3811119113L. Velicka1.53891161WSep 2 · 18:30J. Levicky1.44641161L. Velicka2.6311115113WAug 30 · 21:30L. Velicka1.95126312113M. Koral1.751011111082WAug 30 · 20:00M. Blejchar1.91591111102L. Velicka1.80111167123WAug 30 · 19:00M. Koral1.7311961292L. Velicka2.007111110113
D. Oborny10
WSep 7 · 07:00D. Oborny1.83111169113J. Levicky1.8387111162LSep 7 · 06:00A. Rinka1.671011311113D. Oborny2.1012611762WSep 2 · 20:58D. Oborny1.731191112113J. Levicky2.0061161482LSep 2 · 20:00D. Oborny1.73911891J. Levicky2.0011711113WSep 2 · 18:00D. Oborny1.801111113T. Milota1.914790WAug 31 · 20:58M. Heczko2.0078111152D. Oborny1.73111199113LAug 31 · 20:00D. Oborny1.91411110M. Heczko1.801113133LAug 31 · 19:30T. Milota2.0011611113D. Oborny1.73711671LAug 31 · 18:00D. Oborny1.80117119102J. Levicky1.91711911123WAug 30 · 17:30D. Oborny1.801111113M. Heczko1.805590
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