TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13071749
Played Sep 4Finished
Tomas Milota
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811711119911––
Lukas Velicka
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:38 and never touched — 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeLukas Velicka to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Milota above · Lukas Velicka below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 77 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Lukas Velicka at 59.3%
77 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Milota 5–10 Lukas Velicka Tomas Milota has won 5 of their 15 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:38What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Velicka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-10 in 15
Velicka
Correct
gap of 5 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Milota 1466 vs Velicka 1619
Velicka
Correct
both rated, 154 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Milota 40% vs Velicka 80%
Velicka
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Milota 50% vs Velicka 80%
Velicka
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Milota -2 · Velicka +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Velicka) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Velicka form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMilota 2.25 / Velicka 1.57
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Velicka)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13071749
Milota2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog43% won 34 of 80
Down 0–1, comes back27% 11 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 23
Velicka1.57
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 40 of 65
Up 2–0, closes it93% 14 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it72% 23 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMilota5wins
AwayVelicka5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMilota60%3 of 5
AwayVelicka60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Milota5Velicka5n = 10split evenly
S2Milota5Velicka5n = 10split evenly
S3Milota4Velicka6n = 10Velicka took 6 of 10
S4Milota3Velicka7n = 10Velicka took 7 of 10
S5Milota3Velicka0n = 3Milota took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMilotaVelickaM − VBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.239.7+0.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMilotaVelickaBasisWin rate · lifetime130 / 285 vs 103 / 19245.6%53.7%130 / 285 vs 103 / 192Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.439.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VelickaMilota 2.25/Velicka 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.1%
Velicka · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Velicka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 4 · 19:00T. Milota—871191L. Velicka—11119113
LSep 2 · 21:30T. Milota—812981L. Velicka—111011113
WSep 2 · 20:30T. Milota—11119113L. Velicka—891161
WAug 27 · 18:00T. Milota—911812113L. Velicka—118111092
LJul 27 · 20:30T. Milota—115261L. Velicka—61111113
LJul 16 · 20:58T. Milota—129861L. Velicka—101111113
WJul 16 · 20:30T. Milota—81111113L. Velicka—114751
WJul 13 · 21:30T. Milota—1111610113L. Velicka—83111282
LJul 13 · 18:00T. Milota—10911101L. Velicka—12118123
WMay 14 · 18:30T. Milota—118117113L. Velicka—61121152
T. Milota10
LSep 4 · 20:58J. Hrabec1.57511117113T. Milota2.2511931142LSep 4 · 20:30T. Milota2.10571151J. Hrabec1.6711117113LSep 4 · 18:00J. Levicky1.61111110123T. Milota2.207912101LSep 2 · 21:30L. Velicka1.60111011113T. Milota2.20812981WSep 2 · 20:30T. Milota2.3811119113L. Velicka1.53891161WSep 2 · 19:00T. Milota2.25118811113J. Levicky1.5761111562LSep 2 · 18:00D. Oborny1.801111113T. Milota1.914790LAug 31 · 21:30T. Milota2.206650J. Levicky1.601111113WAug 31 · 20:30J. Levicky1.5791112522T. Milota2.251181011113WAug 31 · 19:30T. Milota2.0011611113D. Oborny1.73711671
L. Velicka10
LSep 4 · 21:28J. Levicky1.801111113L. Velicka1.915790LSep 4 · 20:00J. Levicky1.73111238113L. Velicka2.00310111192WSep 4 · 18:30L. Velicka1.671110117113J. Hrabec2.1071271152WSep 2 · 21:30L. Velicka1.60111011113T. Milota2.20812981LSep 2 · 20:30T. Milota2.3811119113L. Velicka1.53891161WSep 2 · 19:30L. Velicka2.255111111123D. Oborny1.57119137102WSep 2 · 18:30J. Levicky1.44641161L. Velicka2.6311115113WAug 30 · 21:30L. Velicka1.95126312113M. Koral1.751011111082WAug 30 · 20:00M. Blejchar1.91591111102L. Velicka1.80111167123WAug 30 · 19:00M. Koral1.7311961292L. Velicka2.007111110113
Upcoming Matches
T. Milota
Nothing scheduled
L. Velicka
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