TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13040948
Played Aug 30Finished
Marek Blejchar
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
5119111161171012
Lukas Velicka
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:08 and never touched — 59.7% is still 59.7%
Graded at full timeMarek Blejchar to win
59.7%
59.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMarek Blejchar above · Lukas Velicka below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 93 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Marek Blejchar at 59.7%
93 points played in total.
H2H Marek Blejchar 8–6 Lukas Velicka Lukas Velicka has won 6 of their 14 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:08What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Velicka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-6 in 14
Blejchar
Wrong
gap of 2 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Blejchar 1546 vs Velicka 1535
Blejchar
Wrong
both rated, 11 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Blejchar 60% vs Velicka 80%
Velicka
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Blejchar 80% vs Velicka 60%
Blejchar
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Blejchar -2 · Velicka +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Velicka) · live re-read · sealed at 40% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Velicka form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBlejchar 1.91 / Velicka 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Velicka)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13040948
Blejchar1.91
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 69 of 166
Down 0–1, comes back18% 17 of 94
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 55
Velicka1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 39 of 65
Up 2–0, closes it94% 15 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it69% 22 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBlejchar5wins
AwayVelicka5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBlejchar50%2 of 4
AwayVelicka50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Blejchar4Velicka6n = 10Velicka took 6 of 10
S2Blejchar3Velicka7n = 10Velicka took 7 of 10
S3Blejchar7Velicka3n = 10Blejchar took 7 of 10
S4Blejchar5Velicka4n = 9Blejchar took 5 of 9
S5Blejchar2Velicka2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBlejcharVelickaB − VBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.338.6+1.7per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBlejcharVelickaBasisWin rate · lifetime310 / 651 vs 98 / 18647.6%52.7%310 / 651 vs 98 / 186Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.839.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VelickaBlejchar 1.91/Velicka 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Velicka · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Velicka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 30 · 20:00M. Blejchar—591111102L. Velicka—111167123
WJul 7 · 21:00M. Blejchar—81117133L. Velicka—11715111
LJul 7 · 18:30M. Blejchar—111111882L. Velicka—137911113
WJun 28 · 21:30M. Blejchar—951111113L. Velicka—11113442
WJun 28 · 20:00M. Blejchar—6111110113L. Velicka—11461262
WJun 7 · 20:00M. Blejchar—11811113L. Velicka—311461
LMay 28 · 21:01M. Blejchar—116761L. Velicka—91111113
LMay 28 · 19:00M. Blejchar—119981L. Velicka—91111113
LApr 24 · 10:00M. Blejchar—9260L. Velicka—1111113
WMar 9 · 20:00M. Blejchar—11511113L. Velicka—311981
M. Blejchar10
LSep 6 · 17:30M. Blejchar1.73118811122R. Adam2.00711115143WSep 6 · 16:00R. Adam1.8310111051M. Blejchar1.8312912113LSep 6 · 15:00P. Hanel2.10151194103M. Blejchar1.67139111162WSep 6 · 14:30M. Blejchar1.4411119113V. Bosak2.63351181LSep 5 · 21:02M. Blejchar1.44721171F. Zurek2.6311117113LSep 5 · 20:00V. Cerny1.6713711143M. Blejchar2.1011117121LSep 5 · 19:00R. Guliak2.38139114113M. Blejchar1.53111191162WSep 5 · 18:30M. Blejchar1.571111113F. Zurek2.259540LSep 5 · 16:59P. Osvald1.6513116113M. Blejchar2.051141171WSep 5 · 16:30M. Blejchar1.611111113R. Guliak2.203190
L. Velicka10
LSep 4 · 21:28J. Levicky1.801111113L. Velicka1.915790LSep 4 · 20:00J. Levicky1.73111238113L. Velicka2.00310111192WSep 4 · 19:00T. Milota2.25871191L. Velicka1.5711119113WSep 4 · 18:30L. Velicka1.671110117113J. Hrabec2.1071271152WSep 2 · 21:30L. Velicka1.60111011113T. Milota2.20812981LSep 2 · 20:30T. Milota2.3811119113L. Velicka1.53891161WSep 2 · 19:30L. Velicka2.255111111123D. Oborny1.57119137102WSep 2 · 18:30J. Levicky1.44641161L. Velicka2.6311115113WAug 30 · 21:30L. Velicka1.95126312113M. Koral1.751011111082WAug 30 · 19:00M. Koral1.7311961292L. Velicka2.007111110113
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