TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13145416
Played Sep 18Finished
Dalimil Machander
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811911811––––
Dominik Oborny
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:13 and never touched — 57.1% is still 57.1%
Graded at full timeDominik Oborny to win
57.1%
57.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDalimil Machander above · Dominik Oborny below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 58 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Dominik Oborny at 57.1%
58 points played in total.
H2H Dalimil Machander 1–2 Dominik Oborny Dalimil Machander has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:13What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Oborny
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Machander 1565 vs Oborny 1573
Oborny
Correct
both rated, 9 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Machander 20% vs Oborny 40%
Oborny
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Machander 40% vs Oborny 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Machander -3 · Oborny -1
Machander
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Oborny) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Oborny form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMachander 1.91 / Oborny 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Oborny)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13145416
Machander1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog43% won 63 of 147
Down 0–1, comes back35% 28 of 81
Down 0–2, comes back19% 9 of 48
Oborny1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite64% won 91 of 143
Up 2–0, closes it96% 51 of 53
Up 1–0, closes it85% 78 of 92
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeMachander1wins
AwayOborny2wins
1 of 3 to a deciderOborny leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMachandern = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayOborny66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Machander0Oborny3n = 3Oborny took 3 of 3
S2Machander2Oborny1n = 3Machander took 2 of 3
S3Machander0Oborny3n = 3Oborny took 3 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricMachanderObornyM − OBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set03−3of 3Avg pointsper match34.739.0−4.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMachanderObornyBasisWin rate · lifetime169 / 363 vs 320 / 61846.6%51.8%169 / 363 vs 320 / 618Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.437.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ObornyMachander 1.91/Oborny 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Oborny · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Oborny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LSep 14 · 17:03D. Machander35711981D. Oborny3911611113
LSep 14 · 15:30D. Machander2691070D. Oborny341112113
WJun 6 · 15:30D. Machander43511511113D. Oborny4411911762
D. Machander10
LSep 18 · 20:59J. Levicky2.001111113D. Machander1.739640LSep 18 · 20:00D. Machander1.57791281J. Levicky2.25111110113LSep 18 · 19:30R. Vavrecka2.101111113D. Machander1.675950LSep 15 · 17:00D. Machander1.859101191A. Walek1.8511124113LSep 15 · 16:00F. Laburda1.61811114113D. Machander2.2011961192LSep 15 · 15:00L. Martinak1.73111110113D. Machander2.00851261WSep 15 · 14:30D. Machander1.83151267113A. Walek1.831310111162LSep 14 · 17:03D. Oborny1.8311611113D. Machander1.83711981WSep 14 · 16:00D. Machander1.8011101110113R. Skacelik1.9191291272LSep 14 · 15:30D. Oborny2.501112113D. Machander1.5091070
D. Oborny10
LSep 18 · 20:30D. Oborny2.1010890R. Vavrecka1.671211113WSep 18 · 19:00D. Oborny2.001112113J. Levicky1.7331070LSep 17 · 20:59D. Oborny2.20512991V. Zidek1.61111011113WSep 17 · 20:00V. Zidek1.4451151182D. Oborny2.63118119113LSep 17 · 19:00V. Adamczyk1.9111136133D. Oborny1.8081111111LSep 17 · 18:30D. Oborny1.834850V. Cerny1.831111113WSep 14 · 17:03D. Oborny1.8311611113D. Machander1.83711981LSep 14 · 16:30S. Byrtus2.251215134113D. Oborny1.571017111172WSep 14 · 15:30D. Oborny2.501112113D. Machander1.5091070LSep 14 · 14:30R. Skacelik1.671191211113D. Oborny2.1081114272
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