TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13135989
Played Sep 15Finished
Dalimil Machander
Home
1.85
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
9111012114911––
Adrian Walek
Away
1.85
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:57 and never touched — 61.4% is still 61.4%
Graded at full timeDalimil Machander to win
61.4%
61.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDalimil Machander above · Adrian Walek below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 77 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Dalimil Machander at 61.4%
77 points played in total.
H2H Dalimil Machander 20–19 Adrian Walek Adrian Walek has won 19 of their 39 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:57What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.85 (50%)
Walek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
20-19 in 39
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Machander 1595 vs Walek 1527
Machander
Wrong
both rated, 69 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Machander 20% vs Walek 0%
Machander
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Machander 40% vs Walek 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Machander -3 · Walek -5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Walek) · live re-read · sealed at 39% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Walek form (0%) is below what odds imply (54%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMachander 1.85 / Walek 1.85
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Walek)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13135989
Machander1.85
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Walek1.85
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMachander7wins
AwayWalek3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderMachander leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMachander83.3%5 of 6
AwayWalek50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Machander6Walek4n = 10Machander took 6 of 10
S2Machander5Walek5n = 10split evenly
S3Machander6Walek4n = 10Machander took 6 of 10
S4Machander6Walek2n = 8Machander took 6 of 8
S5Machander3Walek2n = 5Machander took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMachanderWalekM − WBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match44.538.6+5.9per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMachanderWalekBasisWin rate · lifetime169 / 362 vs 233 / 46146.7%50.5%169 / 362 vs 233 / 461Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.539.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WalekMachander 1.85/Walek 1.85
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Walek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Walek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 15 · 14:30D. Machander51151267113A. Walek511310111162
WSep 12 · 17:00D. Machander361411113A. Walek2112720
LSep 12 · 14:30D. Machander521110121182A. Walek52912146113
WAug 30 · 19:00D. Machander331111113A. Walek237790
WAug 19 · 09:30D. Machander4311813113A. Walek327111131
WAug 19 · 06:00D. Machander551311911113A. Walek4215911522
LAug 6 · 08:30D. Machander49911101182A. Walek48115129113
LAug 4 · 21:00D. Machander36841591A. Walek46111113113
WAug 4 · 19:00D. Machander4211911113A. Walek28711821
WJul 22 · 09:29D. Machander48691111113A. Walek4311115972
D. Machander10
LSep 15 · 16:00F. Laburda1.61811114113D. Machander2.2011961192LSep 15 · 15:00L. Martinak1.73111110113D. Machander2.00851261WSep 15 · 14:30D. Machander1.83151267113A. Walek1.831310111162LSep 14 · 17:03D. Oborny1.8311611113D. Machander1.83711981WSep 14 · 16:00D. Machander1.8011101110113R. Skacelik1.9191291272LSep 14 · 15:30D. Oborny2.501112113D. Machander1.5091070LSep 14 · 14:00D. Machander2.1061111742S. Byrtus1.67116911113WSep 12 · 21:30D. Machander1.80125119153R. Skacelik1.911011511132WSep 12 · 20:00D. Langer1.57114761D. Machander2.2581111113WSep 12 · 19:00R. Skacelik2.008440D. Machander1.731111113
A. Walek10
LSep 15 · 16:30L. Martinak1.7361111113A. Walek2.00116791LSep 15 · 15:30A. Walek2.00118851F. Laburda1.7331111113LSep 15 · 14:30D. Machander1.83151267113A. Walek1.831310111162LSep 12 · 17:00D. Machander1.801411113A. Walek1.9112720LSep 12 · 16:30D. Heczko1.674111111113A. Walek2.1011134272LSep 12 · 15:30A. Walek1.9156120S. Byrtus1.801111143WSep 12 · 14:30D. Machander1.911110121182A. Walek1.80912146113LSep 12 · 13:30D. Unzeitig1.701115113A. Walek2.0081360LSep 12 · 12:30D. Unzeitig1.671111113A. Walek2.103660WSep 12 · 11:30A. Walek2.201111113Z. Pagac1.618870
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