TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13128558
Played Sep 15Finished
Dalimil Machander
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
15131210611711116
Adrian Walek
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:40 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeDalimil Machander to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDalimil Machander above · Adrian Walek below
Set 1 · 15-13
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 102 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Dalimil Machander at 58.9%
102 points played in total.
H2H Dalimil Machander 19–19 Adrian Walek Dead even across their 38 meetings.
Last 10 · 6–4Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:40What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Walek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-19 in 38
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Machander 1594 vs Walek 1560
Machander
Correct
both rated, 34 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Machander 40% vs Walek 20%
Machander
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Machander 60% vs Walek 40%
Machander
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Machander -1 · Walek -3
Walek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Walek) · live re-read · sealed at 41% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Walek form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMachander 1.83 / Walek 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Walek)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13128558
Machander1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Walek1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMachander6wins
AwayWalek4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMachander leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMachander80%4 of 5
AwayWalek60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Machander5Walek5n = 10split evenly
S2Machander4Walek6n = 10Walek took 6 of 10
S3Machander7Walek3n = 10Machander took 7 of 10
S4Machander6Walek2n = 8Machander took 6 of 8
S5Machander2Walek2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMachanderWalekM − WBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match42.637.1+5.5per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMachanderWalekBasisWin rate · lifetime168 / 359 vs 233 / 45846.8%50.9%168 / 359 vs 233 / 458Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.439.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WalekMachander 1.83/Walek 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Walek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Machander won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 12 · 17:00D. Machander361411113A. Walek2112720
LSep 12 · 14:30D. Machander521110121182A. Walek52912146113
WAug 30 · 19:00D. Machander331111113A. Walek237790
WAug 19 · 09:30D. Machander4311813113A. Walek327111131
WAug 19 · 06:00D. Machander551311911113A. Walek4215911522
LAug 6 · 08:30D. Machander49911101182A. Walek48115129113
LAug 4 · 21:00D. Machander36841591A. Walek46111113113
WAug 4 · 19:00D. Machander4211911113A. Walek28711821
WJul 22 · 09:29D. Machander48691111113A. Walek4311115972
LJul 22 · 06:30D. Machander32481191A. Walek3611113113
D. Machander10
LSep 15 · 15:00L. Martinak1.73111110113D. Machander2.00851261LSep 14 · 17:03D. Oborny1.8311611113D. Machander1.83711981WSep 14 · 16:00D. Machander1.8011101110113R. Skacelik1.9191291272LSep 14 · 15:30D. Oborny2.501112113D. Machander1.5091070LSep 14 · 14:00D. Machander2.1061111742S. Byrtus1.67116911113WSep 12 · 21:30D. Machander1.80125119153R. Skacelik1.911011511132WSep 12 · 20:00D. Langer1.57114761D. Machander2.2581111113WSep 12 · 19:00R. Skacelik2.008440D. Machander1.731111113LSep 12 · 18:30D. Machander1.8396111192D. Heczko1.83111154113WSep 12 · 17:00D. Machander1.801411113A. Walek1.9112720
A. Walek10
LSep 15 · 15:30A. Walek2.00118851F. Laburda1.7331111113LSep 12 · 17:00D. Machander1.801411113A. Walek1.9112720LSep 12 · 16:30D. Heczko1.674111111113A. Walek2.1011134272LSep 12 · 15:30A. Walek1.9156120S. Byrtus1.801111143WSep 12 · 14:30D. Machander1.911110121182A. Walek1.80912146113LSep 12 · 13:30D. Unzeitig1.701115113A. Walek2.0081360LSep 12 · 12:30D. Unzeitig1.671111113A. Walek2.103660WSep 12 · 11:30A. Walek2.201111113Z. Pagac1.618870WSep 12 · 10:30M. Bereiter1.571112651A. Walek2.2571411113LSep 8 · 17:29A. Walek1.9161111382F. Laburda1.80119911113
Upcoming Matches
D. Machander
Nothing scheduled
A. Walek
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