TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13114846
Played Sep 12Finished
Dalimil Machander
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
911611115114911
David Heczko
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:23 and never touched — 55.3% is still 55.3%
Graded at full timeDavid Heczko to win
55.3%
55.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDalimil Machander above · David Heczko below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 88 set 5, 9-11 — our read held David Heczko at 55.3%
88 points played in total.
H2H Dalimil Machander 5–9 David Heczko Dalimil Machander has won 5 of their 14 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Heczko beat Machander 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:23What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Heczko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-9 in 14
Heczko
Correct
gap of 4 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Machander 1590 vs Heczko 1628
Heczko
Correct
both rated, 38 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Machander 40% vs Heczko 80%
Heczko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Machander 40% vs Heczko 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Machander +2 · Heczko +3
Heczko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Heczko) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Heczko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMachander 1.83 / Heczko 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Heczko)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13114846
Machander1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Heczko1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMachander4wins
AwayHeczko6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderHeczko leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMachander37.5%3 of 8
AwayHeczkon = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Machander8Heczko2n = 10Machander took 8 of 10
S2Machander5Heczko5n = 10split evenly
S3Machander4Heczko6n = 10Heczko took 6 of 10
S4Machander2Heczko5n = 7Heczko took 5 of 7
S5Machander1Heczko3n = 4Heczko took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMachanderHeczkoM − HBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match39.837.7+2.1per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMachanderHeczkoBasisWin rate · lifetime164 / 351 vs 264 / 48046.7%55%164 / 351 vs 264 / 480Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.438.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HeczkoMachander 1.83/Heczko 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Heczko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Heczko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 12 · 15:00D. Machander48131381132D. Heczko5711111113113
LAug 31 · 09:28D. Machander4412971152D. Heczko521011119113
WAug 31 · 06:30D. Machander331111113D. Heczko206680
WAug 19 · 07:00D. Machander4211119113D. Heczko27551161
LAug 17 · 19:00D. Machander29910100D. Heczko351112123
WAug 2 · 09:08D. Machander331111113D. Heczko95310
LAug 2 · 08:30D. Machander511110121082D. Heczko494121012113
WJul 22 · 07:00D. Machander48611119113D. Heczko4511681192
LJul 19 · 12:00D. Machander34118781D. Heczko3961111113
LJul 12 · 14:00D. Machander361181161D. Heczko4491113113
D. Machander10
WSep 12 · 19:00R. Skacelik2.008440D. Machander1.731111113WSep 12 · 17:00D. Machander1.801411113A. Walek1.9112720WSep 12 · 16:00S. Byrtus1.738117101D. Machander2.0011611123LSep 12 · 15:00D. Heczko1.8311111113113D. Machander1.83131381132LSep 12 · 14:30D. Machander1.911110121182A. Walek1.80912146113LSep 10 · 09:00D. Machander1.831111951T. Petrek1.8313811113LSep 10 · 08:30J. Cabak2.0071111153D. Machander1.731177131WSep 10 · 07:30D. Machander2.2013118123T. Petrek1.6111411101WSep 10 · 06:30R. Skacelik2.20411581D. Machander1.6111511113LAug 31 · 09:28D. Machander1.8312971152D. Heczko1.831011119113
D. Heczko10
LSep 12 · 19:30D. Heczko2.389118111D. Langer1.5311611133WSep 12 · 17:30D. Heczko1.80611113113S. Byrtus1.9111881192WSep 12 · 16:30D. Heczko1.674111111113A. Walek2.1011134272WSep 12 · 15:00D. Heczko1.8311111113113D. Machander1.83131381132LSep 12 · 14:00S. Byrtus2.001112811113D. Heczko1.7371411872WSep 11 · 21:00S. Byrtus2.107680D. Heczko1.671111113LSep 11 · 20:30D. Heczko2.1071070J. Schwan1.671112113WSep 11 · 19:00D. Heczko1.83121111113S. Byrtus1.831013981LSep 11 · 18:00D. Langer1.501111159113D. Heczko2.5057171162WAug 31 · 09:28D. Machander1.8312971152D. Heczko1.831011119113
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