TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13115397
Played Sep 12Finished
Richard Skacelik
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811411411––––
Dalimil Machander
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:25 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDalimil Machander to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRichard Skacelik above · Dalimil Machander below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Point 49 set 3, 4-11 — our read held Dalimil Machander at 54.0%
49 points played in total.
H2H Richard Skacelik 23–35 Dalimil Machander Richard Skacelik has won 23 of their 58 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:25What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Machander
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
23-35 in 58
Machander
Correct
gap of 12 in 58, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skacelik 1664 vs Machander 1582
Skacelik
Wrong
both rated, 81 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skacelik 60% vs Machander 40%
Skacelik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skacelik 60% vs Machander 40%
Skacelik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Skacelik +1 · Machander -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Skacelik) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Machander form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkacelik 2.00 / Machander 1.73
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Skacelik)+7.7pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13115397
Skacelik2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog45% won 87 of 195
Down 0–1, comes back25% 25 of 100
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 47
Machander1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite53% won 51 of 96
Up 2–0, closes it84% 16 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it67% 35 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkacelik3wins
AwayMachander7wins
6 of 10 to a deciderMachander leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkacelik66.7%2 of 3
AwayMachander85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skacelik3Machander7n = 10Machander took 7 of 10
S2Skacelik7Machander3n = 10Skacelik took 7 of 10
S3Skacelik4Machander6n = 10Machander took 6 of 10
S4Skacelik6Machander4n = 10Skacelik took 6 of 10
S5Skacelik1Machander5n = 6Machander took 5 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkacelikMachanderS − MBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match42.145.0−2.9per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkacelikMachanderBasisWin rate · lifetime211 / 442 vs 164 / 35247.7%46.6%211 / 442 vs 164 / 352Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.740.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkacelikSkacelik 2.00/Machander 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Skacelik · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Machander won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 10 · 06:30R. Skacelik28411581D. Machander3811511113
WAug 29 · 15:00R. Skacelik40111134113D. Machander4496111172
WAug 17 · 20:58R. Skacelik53121119113D. Machander471481781
LAug 17 · 20:00R. Skacelik47811117102D. Machander48119511123
WAug 4 · 20:00R. Skacelik3911116113D. Machander31751181
LAug 2 · 14:30R. Skacelik4587111182D. Machander47111159113
LJul 30 · 21:28R. Skacelik48511615112D. Machander571191113133
LJul 30 · 19:30R. Skacelik411291191D. Machander4514119113
LJul 26 · 07:00R. Skacelik4261251182D. Machander511110118113
LJul 22 · 08:00R. Skacelik38111031132D. Machander42312115113
R. Skacelik10
WSep 12 · 18:00D. Langer1.839880R. Skacelik1.831111113LSep 10 · 09:30J. Cabak2.001111410123R. Skacelik1.73651112102WSep 10 · 08:00T. Petrek1.675940R. Skacelik2.101111113WSep 10 · 07:00J. Cabak2.1016351152R. Skacelik1.651411118113LSep 10 · 06:30R. Skacelik2.20411581D. Machander1.6111511113WSep 9 · 13:00S. Kysely1.619119111R. Skacelik2.2011511133WSep 9 · 12:00R. Skacelik1.531111113S. Byrtus2.385490LSep 9 · 11:30J. Schwan1.91511116123R. Skacelik1.80119311102LSep 9 · 10:00R. Skacelik1.737890S. Kysely2.001111113WSep 6 · 17:29D. Langer1.8016711972R. Skacelik1.911411911113
D. Machander10
LSep 12 · 18:30D. Machander1.8396111192D. Heczko1.83111154113WSep 12 · 17:00D. Machander1.801411113A. Walek1.9112720WSep 12 · 16:00S. Byrtus1.738117101D. Machander2.0011611123LSep 12 · 15:00D. Heczko1.8311111113113D. Machander1.83131381132LSep 12 · 14:30D. Machander1.911110121182A. Walek1.80912146113LSep 10 · 09:00D. Machander1.831111951T. Petrek1.8313811113LSep 10 · 08:30J. Cabak2.0071111153D. Machander1.731177131WSep 10 · 07:30D. Machander2.2013118123T. Petrek1.6111411101WSep 10 · 06:30R. Skacelik2.20411581D. Machander1.6111511113LAug 31 · 09:28D. Machander1.8312971152D. Heczko1.831011119113
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