TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13115166
Played Sep 12Finished
David Heczko
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
111311131181311113
Dalimil Machander
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:34 and never touched — 55.3% is still 55.3%
Graded at full timeDavid Heczko to win
55.3%
55.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDavid Heczko above · Dalimil Machander below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 13-11
Set 5 · 11-3
Point 105 set 5, 11-3 — our read held David Heczko at 55.3%
105 points played in total.
H2H David Heczko 8–5 Dalimil Machander Dalimil Machander has won 5 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:34What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Machander
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-5 in 13
Heczko
Correct
gap of 3 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Heczko 1604 vs Machander 1572
Heczko
Correct
both rated, 32 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Heczko 40% vs Machander 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Heczko 30% vs Machander 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Heczko -1 · Machander -3
Machander
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Heczko) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Machander form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHeczko 1.83 / Machander 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Heczko)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13115166
Heczko1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Machander1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHeczko6wins
AwayMachander4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderHeczko leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHeczko66.7%2 of 3
AwayMachander42.9%3 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Heczko3Machander7n = 10Machander took 7 of 10
S2Heczko6Machander4n = 10Heczko took 6 of 10
S3Heczko6Machander4n = 10Heczko took 6 of 10
S4Heczko4Machander2n = 6Heczko took 4 of 6
S5Heczko2Machander1n = 3Heczko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricHeczkoMachanderH − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match35.337.2−1.9per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHeczkoMachanderBasisWin rate · lifetime261 / 477 vs 162 / 34854.7%46.6%261 / 477 vs 162 / 348Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.440.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HeczkoHeczko 1.83/Machander 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Heczko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Heczko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 31 · 09:28D. Heczko521011119113D. Machander4412971152
LAug 31 · 06:30D. Heczko206680D. Machander331111113
LAug 19 · 07:00D. Heczko27551161D. Machander4211119113
WAug 17 · 19:00D. Heczko351112123D. Machander29910100
LAug 2 · 09:08D. Heczko95310D. Machander331111113
WAug 2 · 08:30D. Heczko494121012113D. Machander511110121082
LJul 22 · 07:00D. Heczko4511681192D. Machander48611119113
WJul 19 · 12:00D. Heczko3961111113D. Machander34118781
WJul 12 · 14:00D. Heczko4491113113D. Machander361181161
WJun 21 · 20:30D. Heczko331111113D. Machander227870
D. Heczko10
LSep 12 · 14:00S. Byrtus2.001112811113D. Heczko1.7371411872WSep 11 · 21:00S. Byrtus2.107680D. Heczko1.671111113LSep 11 · 20:30D. Heczko2.1071070J. Schwan1.671112113WSep 11 · 19:00D. Heczko1.83121111113S. Byrtus1.831013981LSep 11 · 18:00D. Langer1.501111159113D. Heczko2.5057171162LSep 8 · 17:08D. Langer1.401111113D. Heczko2.758350LSep 8 · 16:30D. Langer1.73711811113D. Heczko2.0011611682WSep 8 · 15:30D. Heczko2.251112110143F. Laburda1.576101112122LSep 8 · 14:30A. Walek2.10918117113D. Heczko1.67111661182LSep 5 · 13:04D. Heczko3.257240D. Langer1.331111113
D. Machander10
LSep 12 · 14:30D. Machander1.911110121182A. Walek1.80912146113LSep 10 · 09:00D. Machander1.831111951T. Petrek1.8313811113LSep 10 · 08:30J. Cabak2.0071111153D. Machander1.731177131WSep 10 · 07:30D. Machander2.2013118123T. Petrek1.6111411101WSep 10 · 06:30R. Skacelik2.20411581D. Machander1.6111511113LAug 31 · 09:28D. Machander1.8312971152D. Heczko1.831011119113LAug 31 · 08:30D. Langer1.73117711193D. Machander2.00911116172WAug 31 · 07:30D. Machander2.2511119113S. Byrtus1.57591121WAug 31 · 06:30D. Heczko1.736680D. Machander2.001111113LAug 30 · 21:29S. Byrtus1.57611117123D. Machander2.25114911102
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