TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13113846
Played Sep 12Finished
Marek Bereiter
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1171214611511––
Adrian Walek
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:12 and never touched — 55.1% is still 55.1%
Graded at full timeMarek Bereiter to win
55.1%
55.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMarek Bereiter above · Adrian Walek below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 77 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Marek Bereiter at 55.1%
77 points played in total.
H2H Marek Bereiter 3–2 Adrian Walek Adrian Walek has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:12What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Bereiter
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bereiter 1706 vs Walek 1618
Bereiter
Wrong
both rated, 88 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bereiter 80% vs Walek 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bereiter 60% vs Walek 40%
Bereiter
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Bereiter -1 · Walek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Bereiter) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Walek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBereiter 1.57 / Walek 2.25
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Bereiter)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13113846
Bereiter1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 17 of 28
Up 2–0, closes it100% 7 of 7
Up 1–0, closes it93% 13 of 14
Walek2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog50% won 92 of 186
Down 0–1, comes back35% 33 of 94
Down 0–2, comes back17% 7 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeBereiter3wins
AwayWalek2wins
1 of 5 to a deciderBereiter leads 3–2, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBereitern = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayWalek66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bereiter2Walek3n = 5Walek took 3 of 5
S2Bereiter3Walek2n = 5Bereiter took 3 of 5
S3Bereiter2Walek3n = 5Walek took 3 of 5
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away240%
These 5 meetings
MetricBereiterWalekB − WBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match36.634.8+1.8per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBereiterWalekBasisWin rate · lifetime36 / 64 vs 230 / 45056.3%51.1%36 / 64 vs 230 / 450Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.739.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BereiterBereiter 1.57/Walek 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.3%
Bereiter · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Walek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 6 · 06:30M. Bereiter—1317116113A. Walek—151571172
WSep 5 · 13:28M. Bereiter—1113113A. Walek—21180
LSep 5 · 11:30M. Bereiter—81070A. Walek—1112113
WApr 8 · 17:00M. Bereiter—11116123A. Walek—4611101
LApr 8 · 14:30M. Bereiter—9880A. Walek—1111113
M. Bereiter10
LSep 6 · 09:30M. Bereiter1.807970T. Kypr1.901111113WSep 6 · 08:00T. Kypr1.737111081M. Bereiter2.0011912113WSep 6 · 07:00L. Martinak1.804980M. Bereiter1.911111113WSep 6 · 06:30M. Bereiter1.671317116113A. Walek2.10151571172WSep 5 · 13:28A. Walek1.8521180M. Bereiter1.801113113WSep 5 · 12:00M. Bereiter1.53148811133D. Heczko2.381211118112LSep 5 · 11:30A. Walek1.801112113M. Bereiter1.9181070WSep 5 · 10:00M. Bereiter1.5315118113D. Langer2.381321161LSep 3 · 17:29T. Kypr1.731111113M. Bereiter2.009730LSep 3 · 16:00M. Bereiter2.00511481T. Kypr1.7311911113
A. Walek10
LSep 8 · 17:29A. Walek1.9161111382F. Laburda1.80119911113WSep 8 · 16:00F. Laburda1.7351111792A. Walek2.00114911113WSep 8 · 15:00D. Langer1.73471111132A. Walek2.00111176153WSep 8 · 14:30A. Walek2.10918117113D. Heczko1.67111661182WSep 6 · 08:59L. Martinak1.5011117452A. Walek2.50661111113LSep 6 · 08:30L. Martinak1.731111113A. Walek2.006770LSep 6 · 07:30A. Walek3.0085130T. Kypr1.361111153LSep 6 · 06:30M. Bereiter1.671317116113A. Walek2.10151571172LSep 5 · 13:28A. Walek1.8521180M. Bereiter1.801113113WSep 5 · 11:30A. Walek1.801112113M. Bereiter1.9181070
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