TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13123936
Played Sep 14Finished
Dalimil Machander
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
611116119711411
Samuel Byrtus
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:58 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDalimil Machander to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDalimil Machander above · Samuel Byrtus below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 87 set 5, 4-11 — our read held Dalimil Machander at 54.0%
87 points played in total.
H2H Dalimil Machander 8–10 Samuel Byrtus Dalimil Machander has won 8 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:58What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Byrtus
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-10 in 18
Byrtus
Correct
gap of 2 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Machander 1635 vs Byrtus 1544
Machander
Wrong
both rated, 91 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Machander 80% vs Byrtus 40%
Machander
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Machander 50% vs Byrtus 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Machander +3 · Byrtus -2
Machander
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Byrtus) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Byrtus form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMachander 2.10 / Byrtus 1.67
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Byrtus)+0.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13123936
Machander2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog44% won 64 of 147
Down 0–1, comes back35% 28 of 80
Down 0–2, comes back19% 9 of 47
Byrtus1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 84 of 137
Up 2–0, closes it91% 39 of 43
Up 1–0, closes it77% 57 of 74
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMachander4wins
AwayByrtus6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderByrtus leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMachander66.7%4 of 6
AwayByrtus100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Machander6Byrtus4n = 10Machander took 6 of 10
S2Machander4Byrtus6n = 10Byrtus took 6 of 10
S3Machander3Byrtus7n = 10Byrtus took 7 of 10
S4Machander6Byrtus2n = 8Machander took 6 of 8
S5Machander0Byrtus3n = 3Byrtus took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMachanderByrtusM − BBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.838.3−0.5per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMachanderByrtusBasisWin rate · lifetime167 / 355 vs 299 / 58447%51.2%167 / 355 vs 299 / 584Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.538.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ByrtusMachander 2.10/Byrtus 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.6%
Byrtus · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Byrtus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 12 · 16:00D. Machander4011611123S. Byrtus368117101
WAug 31 · 07:30D. Machander4211119113S. Byrtus27591121
LAug 30 · 21:29D. Machander45114911102S. Byrtus47611117123
LAug 30 · 18:00D. Machander248970S. Byrtus331111113
LAug 28 · 14:00D. Machander30711571S. Byrtus4011711113
LAug 19 · 08:30D. Machander4911169762S. Byrtus558141111113
WJul 31 · 16:59D. Machander4112711113S. Byrtus361011871
LJul 31 · 15:30D. Machander4261361162S. Byrtus461111112113
WJul 19 · 13:03D. Machander3911611113S. Byrtus28411581
LJul 19 · 11:30D. Machander2611960S. Byrtus351311113
D. Machander10
WSep 12 · 21:30D. Machander1.80125119153R. Skacelik1.911011511132WSep 12 · 20:00D. Langer1.57114761D. Machander2.2581111113WSep 12 · 19:00R. Skacelik2.008440D. Machander1.731111113LSep 12 · 18:30D. Machander1.8396111192D. Heczko1.83111154113WSep 12 · 17:00D. Machander1.801411113A. Walek1.9112720WSep 12 · 16:00S. Byrtus1.738117101D. Machander2.0011611123LSep 12 · 15:00D. Heczko1.8311111113113D. Machander1.83131381132LSep 12 · 14:30D. Machander1.911110121182A. Walek1.80912146113LSep 10 · 09:00D. Machander1.831111951T. Petrek1.8313811113LSep 10 · 08:30J. Cabak2.0071111153D. Machander1.731177131
S. Byrtus10
LSep 12 · 17:30D. Heczko1.80611113113S. Byrtus1.9111881192LSep 12 · 16:00S. Byrtus1.738117101D. Machander2.0011611123WSep 12 · 15:30A. Walek1.9156120S. Byrtus1.801111143WSep 12 · 14:00S. Byrtus2.001112811113D. Heczko1.7371411872LSep 11 · 21:00S. Byrtus2.107680D. Heczko1.671111113WSep 11 · 20:00D. Langer2.00116101132S. Byrtus1.73711128113LSep 11 · 19:00D. Heczko1.83121111113S. Byrtus1.831013981LSep 11 · 18:30S. Byrtus1.9111114722J. Schwan1.80861111113WSep 9 · 13:30J. Schwan1.61119961S. Byrtus2.2041111113LSep 9 · 12:00R. Skacelik1.531111113S. Byrtus2.385490
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