TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13129725
Played Sep 15Finished
Lukas Martinak
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
611116117119––
Adrian Walek
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:22 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLukas Martinak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Martinak above · Adrian Walek below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 72 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Lukas Martinak at 54.0%
72 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Martinak 13–12 Adrian Walek Adrian Walek has won 12 of their 25 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:22What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Martinak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-12 in 25
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Martinak 1643 vs Walek 1544
Martinak
Correct
both rated, 99 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Martinak 40% vs Walek 0%
Martinak
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Martinak 30% vs Walek 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Martinak +1 · Walek -5
Walek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Martinak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Walek form (0%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMartinak 1.73 / Walek 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Martinak)+0.3pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13129725
Martinak1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite55% won 42 of 76
Up 2–0, closes it87% 26 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it70% 32 of 46
Walek2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog50% won 79 of 159
Down 0–1, comes back35% 27 of 77
Down 0–2, comes back18% 7 of 38
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMartinak6wins
AwayWalek4wins
7 of 10 to a deciderMartinak leads 6–4, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMartinak60%3 of 5
AwayWalek40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Martinak5Walek5n = 10split evenly
S2Martinak9Walek1n = 10Martinak took 9 of 10
S3Martinak4Walek6n = 10Walek took 6 of 10
S4Martinak3Walek6n = 9Walek took 6 of 9
S5Martinak4Walek3n = 7Martinak took 4 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMartinakWalekM − WBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match43.741.6+2.1per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMartinakWalekBasisWin rate · lifetime147 / 277 vs 233 / 46053.1%50.7%147 / 277 vs 233 / 460Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.239.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MartinakMartinak 1.73/Walek 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Martinak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Martinak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 08:59L. Martinak3811117452A. Walek45661111113
WSep 6 · 08:30L. Martinak331111113A. Walek206770
LSep 5 · 09:00L. Martinak48111091442A. Walek559121112113
WSep 5 · 06:00L. Martinak41111153113A. Walek4075111162
LAug 20 · 13:00L. Martinak37911891A. Walek4211911113
WAug 20 · 10:00L. Martinak53914117123A. Walek501112611102
WAug 3 · 09:10L. Martinak44111111113A. Walek38791391
WAug 3 · 07:30L. Martinak43711113113A. Walek4411681182
LJun 22 · 10:00L. Martinak49911101182A. Walek45117124113
WApr 15 · 13:30L. Martinak51911119113A. Walek3711251182
L. Martinak10
WSep 15 · 15:00L. Martinak1.73111110113D. Machander2.00851261LSep 15 · 14:00F. Laburda1.831261110183L. Martinak1.831011712162LSep 6 · 08:59L. Martinak1.5011117452A. Walek2.50661111113WSep 6 · 08:30L. Martinak1.731111113A. Walek2.006770LSep 6 · 07:00L. Martinak1.804980M. Bereiter1.911111113LSep 6 · 06:00T. Kypr2.0091111143L. Martinak1.731154121LSep 5 · 09:00A. Walek1.959121112113L. Martinak1.75111091442LSep 5 · 08:00L. Martinak1.809980D. Heczko1.911111113LSep 5 · 07:30J. Snr1.83811115113L. Martinak1.8311941162WSep 5 · 06:00L. Martinak1.73111153113A. Walek2.0075111162
A. Walek10
WSep 15 · 17:00D. Machander1.859101191A. Walek1.8511124113LSep 15 · 15:30A. Walek2.00118851F. Laburda1.7331111113LSep 15 · 14:30D. Machander1.83151267113A. Walek1.831310111162LSep 12 · 17:00D. Machander1.801411113A. Walek1.9112720LSep 12 · 16:30D. Heczko1.674111111113A. Walek2.1011134272LSep 12 · 15:30A. Walek1.9156120S. Byrtus1.801111143WSep 6 · 08:59L. Martinak1.5011117452A. Walek2.50661111113LSep 6 · 08:30L. Martinak1.731111113A. Walek2.006770WSep 5 · 09:00A. Walek1.959121112113L. Martinak1.75111091442LSep 5 · 06:00L. Martinak1.73111153113A. Walek2.0075111162
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