TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13125975
Played Sep 14Finished
Samuel Byrtus
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
121015171311411117
Dominik Oborny
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:31 and never touched — 66.1% is still 66.1%
Graded at full timeDominik Oborny to win
66.1%
66.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingSamuel Byrtus above · Dominik Oborny below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 15-17
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 111 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Dominik Oborny at 66.1%
111 points played in total.
H2H Samuel Byrtus 2–8 Dominik Oborny Samuel Byrtus has won 2 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:31What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Oborny
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-8 in 10
Oborny
Wrong
gap of 6 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Byrtus 1549 vs Oborny 1618
Oborny
Wrong
both rated, 70 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Byrtus 40% vs Oborny 20%
Byrtus
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Byrtus 40% vs Oborny 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Byrtus -1 · Oborny +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Oborny) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Oborny form (20%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsByrtus 2.25 / Oborny 1.57
Signal prob.40% / 61%
Edge (Oborny)+1.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13125975
Byrtus2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog46% won 67 of 147
Down 0–1, comes back30% 23 of 78
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 42
Oborny1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite64% won 91 of 142
Up 2–0, closes it96% 51 of 53
Up 1–0, closes it85% 78 of 92
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeByrtus2wins
AwayOborny8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderOborny leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeByrtusn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayOborny87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Byrtus2Oborny8n = 10Oborny took 8 of 10
S2Byrtus2Oborny8n = 10Oborny took 8 of 10
S3Byrtus5Oborny5n = 10split evenly
S4Byrtus0Oborny7n = 7Oborny took 7 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricByrtusObornyB − OBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match32.140.8−8.7per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricByrtusObornyBasisWin rate · lifetime300 / 586 vs 318 / 61251.2%52%300 / 586 vs 318 / 612Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.137.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ObornyByrtus 2.25/Oborny 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.5%
Oborny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Byrtus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WApr 25 · 13:29S. Byrtus53146129123D. Oborny5412111011102
LApr 25 · 11:30S. Byrtus228680D. Oborny331111113
LMar 2 · 15:00S. Byrtus27851131D. Oborny4011117113
LMar 1 · 19:30S. Byrtus2361250D. Oborny361114113
LFeb 28 · 08:30S. Byrtus248790D. Oborny331111113
LFeb 23 · 10:00S. Byrtus33611791D. Oborny3911611113
WFeb 23 · 08:30S. Byrtus49814115113D. Oborny49111261192
LDec 17 · 16:30S. Byrtus24114361D. Oborny4071111113
LNov 16 · 16:30S. Byrtus34891161D. Oborny4211119113
LOct 18 · 14:00S. Byrtus326111141D. Oborny4211137113
S. Byrtus10
WSep 14 · 17:30R. Skacelik1.4987111172S. Byrtus2.40111185113LSep 14 · 15:00S. Byrtus2.63891141R. Skacelik1.4411116113WSep 14 · 14:00D. Machander2.1061111742S. Byrtus1.67116911113LSep 12 · 17:30D. Heczko1.80611113113S. Byrtus1.9111881192LSep 12 · 16:00S. Byrtus1.738117101D. Machander2.0011611123WSep 12 · 15:30A. Walek1.9156120S. Byrtus1.801111143WSep 12 · 14:00S. Byrtus2.001112811113D. Heczko1.7371411872LSep 11 · 21:00S. Byrtus2.107680D. Heczko1.671111113WSep 11 · 20:00D. Langer2.00116101132S. Byrtus1.73711128113LSep 11 · 19:00D. Heczko1.83121111113S. Byrtus1.831013981
D. Oborny10
WSep 14 · 17:03D. Oborny1.8311611113D. Machander1.83711981WSep 14 · 15:30D. Oborny2.501112113D. Machander1.5091070LSep 14 · 14:30R. Skacelik1.671191211113D. Oborny2.1081114272LSep 8 · 08:58M. Heczko2.001111610113D. Oborny1.7399111272LSep 8 · 08:30D. Oborny1.80971171M. Heczko1.9111118113LSep 8 · 07:00D. Oborny1.91115591J. Levicky1.8061111113WSep 8 · 06:00P. Danko1.831211881D. Oborny1.8314811113WSep 7 · 09:28D. Oborny1.80116911113M. Heczko1.9191111892WSep 7 · 08:30D. Oborny1.8011116113M. Heczko1.91961191WSep 7 · 07:00D. Oborny1.83111169113J. Levicky1.8387111162
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