TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13129614
Played Sep 14Finished
Samuel Byrtus
Home
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811911116411––
Richard Skacelik
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:01 and never touched — 58.2% is still 58.2%
Graded at full timeRichard Skacelik to win
58.2%
58.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSamuel Byrtus above · Richard Skacelik below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 71 set 4, 4-11 — our read held Richard Skacelik at 58.2%
71 points played in total.
H2H Samuel Byrtus 3–6 Richard Skacelik Samuel Byrtus has won 3 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:01What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Skacelik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-6 in 9
Skacelik
Correct
gap of 3 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Byrtus 1557 vs Skacelik 1644
Skacelik
Correct
both rated, 86 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Byrtus 60% vs Skacelik 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Byrtus 50% vs Skacelik 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Byrtus +1 · Skacelik +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Skacelik) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Byrtus form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsByrtus 2.63 / Skacelik 1.44
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Skacelik)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13129614
Byrtus2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog46% won 67 of 147
Down 0–1, comes back30% 23 of 78
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 42
Skacelik1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 57 of 100
Up 2–0, closes it90% 28 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it67% 40 of 60
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeByrtus3wins
AwaySkacelik6wins
2 of 9 to a deciderSkacelik leads 6–3, and 2 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeByrtus33.3%1 of 3
AwaySkacelik66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Byrtus3Skacelik6n = 9Skacelik took 6 of 9
S2Byrtus3Skacelik6n = 9Skacelik took 6 of 9
S3Byrtus1Skacelik8n = 9Skacelik took 8 of 9
S4Byrtus3Skacelik3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home111%
3–2Decider, home222%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away333%
0–3Straight, away333%
These 9 meetings
MetricByrtusSkacelikB − SBasisWins36−3in 9 meetingsFirst set36−3of 9Avg pointsper match32.238.2−6.0per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricByrtusSkacelikBasisWin rate · lifetime300 / 585 vs 213 / 44651.3%47.8%300 / 585 vs 213 / 446Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.239.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkacelikByrtus 2.63/Skacelik 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.7%
Skacelik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Skacelik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 9 · 12:00S. Byrtus185490R. Skacelik331111113
WAug 19 · 13:28S. Byrtus49811811113R. Skacelik3611411372
LAug 19 · 12:00S. Byrtus183870R. Skacelik331111113
WJul 24 · 12:58S. Byrtus4311118133R. Skacelik378711111
LJul 24 · 12:00S. Byrtus229490R. Skacelik331111113
LJul 13 · 17:04S. Byrtus25115361R. Skacelik4181111113
LJul 13 · 14:30S. Byrtus311172111R. Skacelik4381111133
WJul 2 · 06:00S. Byrtus49791111113R. Skacelik4811118992
LMay 21 · 10:30S. Byrtus35911691R. Skacelik4011711113
S. Byrtus10
WSep 14 · 14:00D. Machander2.1061111742S. Byrtus1.67116911113LSep 12 · 17:30D. Heczko1.80611113113S. Byrtus1.9111881192LSep 12 · 16:00S. Byrtus1.738117101D. Machander2.0011611123WSep 12 · 15:30A. Walek1.9156120S. Byrtus1.801111143WSep 12 · 14:00S. Byrtus2.001112811113D. Heczko1.7371411872LSep 11 · 21:00S. Byrtus2.107680D. Heczko1.671111113WSep 11 · 20:00D. Langer2.00116101132S. Byrtus1.73711128113LSep 11 · 19:00D. Heczko1.83121111113S. Byrtus1.831013981LSep 11 · 18:30S. Byrtus1.9111114722J. Schwan1.80861111113WSep 9 · 13:30J. Schwan1.61119961S. Byrtus2.2041111113
R. Skacelik10
WSep 14 · 14:30R. Skacelik1.671191211113D. Oborny2.1081114272LSep 12 · 21:30D. Machander1.80125119153R. Skacelik1.911011511132WSep 12 · 20:30R. Skacelik1.671291111113D. Heczko2.10101131392LSep 12 · 19:00R. Skacelik2.008440D. Machander1.731111113WSep 12 · 18:00D. Langer1.839880R. Skacelik1.831111113LSep 10 · 09:30J. Cabak2.001111410123R. Skacelik1.73651112102WSep 10 · 08:00T. Petrek1.675940R. Skacelik2.101111113WSep 10 · 07:00J. Cabak2.1016351152R. Skacelik1.651411118113LSep 10 · 06:30R. Skacelik2.20411581D. Machander1.6111511113WSep 9 · 13:00S. Kysely1.619119111R. Skacelik2.2011511133
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