TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13110735
Played Sep 11Finished
Lukas Velicka
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11911133111412115
Radim Adam
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:33 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRadim Adam to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLukas Velicka above · Radim Adam below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 14-12
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 100 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Radim Adam at 54.0%
100 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Velicka 4–4 Radim Adam Dead even across their 8 meetings.
Last 8 · 4–4Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:33What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Velicka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-4 in 8
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Velicka 1564 vs Adam 1568
Adam
Wrong
both rated, 4 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Velicka 80% vs Adam 60%
Velicka
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Velicka 50% vs Adam 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Velicka +2 · Adam -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Velicka) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Velicka form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVelicka 1.80 / Adam 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Velicka)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13110735
Velicka1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 43 of 71
Up 2–0, closes it94% 16 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it70% 26 of 37
Adam1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog47% won 39 of 83
Down 0–1, comes back31% 14 of 45
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeVelicka4wins
AwayAdam4wins
3 of 8 to a deciderLevel at 4–4, and 3 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVelicka75%3 of 4
AwayAdam75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Velicka4Adam4n = 8split evenly
S2Velicka5Adam3n = 8Velicka took 5 of 8
S3Velicka4Adam4n = 8split evenly
S4Velicka4Adam4n = 8split evenly
S5Velicka1Adam2n = 3Adam took 2 of 3
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home338%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away225%
1–3Four sets, away225%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricVelickaAdamV − ABasisWins440in 8 meetingsFirst set440of 8Avg pointsper match40.843.9−3.1per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVelickaAdamBasisWin rate · lifetime108 / 204 vs 195 / 37352.9%52.3%108 / 204 vs 195 / 373Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.638.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VelickaVelicka 1.80/Adam 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Velicka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Velicka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LSep 8 · 18:30L. Velicka—41111892R. Adam—116711113
LJun 7 · 18:00L. Velicka—51311562R. Adam—1111911113
WApr 24 · 12:00L. Velicka—11711143R. Adam—7119121
WApr 1 · 19:30L. Velicka—121111113R. Adam—1071391
WMar 4 · 20:00L. Velicka—11124113R. Adam—5101171
LMar 3 · 21:30L. Velicka—861241R. Adam—111110113
LJan 9 · 10:00L. Velicka—116961R. Adam—91111113
WJan 9 · 07:30L. Velicka—5161211113R. Adam—111414982
L. Velicka10
WSep 11 · 19:30P. Osvald2.10118681L. Velicka1.6781111113WSep 11 · 18:00L. Velicka1.7311811113M. Blejchar2.00711741LSep 8 · 21:29R. Vavrecka1.9191111113L. Velicka1.80116461WSep 8 · 20:00R. Vavrecka1.8312871172L. Velicka1.831011115113WSep 8 · 19:00T. Milota2.38651161L. Velicka1.5311116113LSep 8 · 18:30L. Velicka1.7341111892R. Adam2.00116711113WSep 7 · 16:59O. Hradil1.61111181192L. Velicka2.20138113113LSep 7 · 16:30L. Velicka1.618970O. Hradil2.201111113LSep 7 · 15:00L. Velicka2.00771181J. Levicky1.7311119113LSep 7 · 14:00R. Vavrecka1.911011411113L. Velicka1.8012311862
R. Adam10
LSep 11 · 19:00M. Blejchar1.831213153R. Adam1.831011130LSep 11 · 18:30R. Adam2.108890P. Osvald1.671111113WSep 9 · 20:58R. Adam1.531212113R. Guliak2.38101090WSep 9 · 20:00R. Adam1.8351111113M. Blejchar1.83117861WSep 9 · 19:30R. Guliak2.3811123952R. Adam1.539101111113LSep 9 · 18:00R. Adam1.837840M. Koral1.831111113WSep 8 · 20:58R. Adam2.0011116113T. Milota1.73691171WSep 8 · 20:30T. Milota1.57791191R. Adam2.2511115113LSep 8 · 19:30R. Adam2.201179111R. Vavrecka1.6141111133WSep 8 · 18:30L. Velicka1.7341111892R. Adam2.00116711113
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