TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13111135
Played Sep 11Finished
Petr Osvald
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
118811611811––
Lukas Velicka
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:23 and never touched — 58.2% is still 58.2%
Graded at full timeLukas Velicka to win
58.2%
58.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr Osvald above · Lukas Velicka below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 8-10
Point 73 set 4, 8-10 — our read held Lukas Velicka at 58.2%
73 points drawn · the score is 1 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Petr Osvald 3–2 Lukas Velicka Lukas Velicka has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:23What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Velicka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Osvald 1436 vs Velicka 1564
Velicka
Correct
both rated, 128 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Osvald 20% vs Velicka 60%
Velicka
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Osvald 30% vs Velicka 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Osvald +1 · Velicka +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Velicka)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Osvald form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOsvald 2.10 / Velicka 1.67
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Velicka)+2.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13111135
Osvald2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 28 of 73
Down 0–1, comes back21% 9 of 43
Down 0–2, comes back15% 3 of 20
Velicka1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 43 of 71
Up 2–0, closes it94% 16 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it70% 26 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeOsvald3wins
AwayVelicka2wins
3 of 5 to a deciderOsvald leads 3–2, and 3 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOsvald75%3 of 4
AwayVelickan = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Osvald4Velicka1n = 5Osvald took 4 of 5
S2Osvald2Velicka3n = 5Velicka took 3 of 5
S3Osvald3Velicka2n = 5Osvald took 3 of 5
S4Osvald1Velicka4n = 5Velicka took 4 of 5
S5Osvald2Velicka1n = 3Osvald took 2 of 3
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home240%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricOsvaldVelickaO − VBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set41+3of 5Avg pointsper match43.842.6+1.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOsvaldVelickaBasisWin rate · lifetime105 / 216 vs 107 / 20348.6%52.7%105 / 216 vs 107 / 203Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.539.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VelickaOsvald 2.10/Velicka 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.2%
Velicka · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Velicka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WAug 27 · 21:00P. Osvald—11111110113L. Velicka—81341292
LAug 27 · 19:30P. Osvald—11911772L. Velicka—911811113
LApr 24 · 13:30P. Osvald—961251L. Velicka—111110113
WApr 24 · 11:30P. Osvald—111276113L. Velicka—410111162
WApr 22 · 10:00P. Osvald—11116133L. Velicka—2811111
P. Osvald10
WSep 11 · 18:30R. Adam2.108890P. Osvald1.671111113LSep 7 · 13:01M. Blejchar2.201114123P. Osvald1.61812100LSep 7 · 12:30P. Osvald1.53811691M. Blejchar2.3811611113LSep 7 · 11:00P. Osvald2.201188101P. Chovanec1.6191111123LSep 7 · 10:00O. Hradil1.57115118113P. Osvald2.2591151182WSep 5 · 16:59P. Osvald1.6513116113M. Blejchar2.051141171LSep 5 · 16:00J. Hrabec1.61741111113P. Osvald2.2011116542WSep 5 · 15:00M. Blejchar2.2041113332P. Osvald1.611181111113LSep 5 · 14:30P. Osvald1.53101191172R. Guliak2.38127119113LSep 2 · 13:30P. Osvald1.5071211952R. Adam2.451110511113
L. Velicka10
WSep 11 · 18:00L. Velicka1.7311811113M. Blejchar2.00711741LSep 8 · 21:29R. Vavrecka1.9191111113L. Velicka1.80116461WSep 8 · 20:00R. Vavrecka1.8312871172L. Velicka1.831011115113WSep 8 · 19:00T. Milota2.38651161L. Velicka1.5311116113LSep 8 · 18:30L. Velicka1.7341111892R. Adam2.00116711113WSep 7 · 16:59O. Hradil1.61111181192L. Velicka2.20138113113LSep 7 · 16:30L. Velicka1.618970O. Hradil2.201111113LSep 7 · 15:00L. Velicka2.00771181J. Levicky1.7311119113LSep 7 · 14:00R. Vavrecka1.911011411113L. Velicka1.8012311862LSep 4 · 21:28J. Levicky1.801111113L. Velicka1.915790
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