TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 20Finished
Lukas Velicka
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
101212141191161113
Marek Volny
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 9Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 9
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:30 and never touched — 58.0% is still 58.0%
Graded at full timeMarek Volny to win
58.0%
58.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Velicka above · Marek Volny below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 11-13
Point 109 set 5, 11-13 — our read held Marek Volny at 58.0%
109 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Velicka 1–6 Marek Volny Lukas Velicka has won 1 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:30What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Volny
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-6 in 7
Volny
Correct
gap of 5 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Velicka 1509 vs Volny 1510
Volny
Correct
both rated, 1 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Velicka 40% vs Volny 0%
Velicka
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Velicka 50% vs Volny 10%
Velicka
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Velicka -3 · Volny -9
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Volny) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Volny form (0%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVelicka 2.38 / Volny 1.53
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Volny)+1.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13160043
Velicka2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog48% won 25 of 52
Down 0–1, comes back28% 9 of 32
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 14
Volny1.53
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 9
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 57 of 95
Up 2–0, closes it100% 28 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it86% 43 of 50
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeVelicka1wins
AwayVolny6wins
2 of 7 to a deciderVolny leads 6–1, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVelickan = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayVolny100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Velicka2Volny5n = 7Volny took 5 of 7
S2Velicka3Volny4n = 7Volny took 4 of 7
S3Velicka2Volny5n = 7Volny took 5 of 7
S4Velicka3Volny3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away229%
1–3Four sets, away343%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricVelickaVolnyVelicka − VolnyBasisWins16−5in 7 meetingsFirst set25−3of 7Avg pointsper match38.943.0−4.1per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVelickaVolnyBasisWin rate · lifetime109 / 209 vs 94 / 18352.2%51.4%109 / 209 vs 94 / 183Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.637.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VolnyVelicka 2.38/Volny 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.4%
Volny · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Volny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LSep 20 · 20:30L. Velicka5510121111112M. Volny54121496133
LAug 10 · 20:00L. Velicka31413591M. Volny44111111113
LJul 27 · 19:00L. Velicka33613681M. Volny44111111113
WJul 22 · 19:30L. Velicka4311117143M. Volny376811121
LJul 7 · 20:30L. Velicka2310580M. Volny341211113
LJul 1 · 21:30L. Velicka391199101M. Volny4391111123
LJul 1 · 18:00L. Velicka4889111192M. Volny45111157113
L. Velicka10
LSep 20 · 21:12M. Volny1.2512511113L. Velicka3.751011591LSep 20 · 19:00L. Velicka1.918560V. Cerny1.801111113LSep 20 · 18:00D. Oborny1.611111133L. Velicka2.2088110LSep 11 · 21:29L. Velicka1.6711471692M. Blejchar2.108111114113WSep 11 · 20:00L. Velicka1.801111314113R. Adam1.91913111252WSep 11 · 19:30P. Osvald2.10118681L. Velicka1.6781111113WSep 11 · 18:00L. Velicka1.7311811113M. Blejchar2.00711741LSep 8 · 21:29R. Vavrecka1.9191111113L. Velicka1.80116461WSep 8 · 20:00R. Vavrecka1.8312871172L. Velicka1.831011115113WSep 8 · 19:00T. Milota2.38651161L. Velicka1.5311116113
M. Volny10
WSep 20 · 21:12M. Volny1.2512511113L. Velicka3.751011591LSep 20 · 19:30M. Volny1.679680D. Oborny2.101111113LSep 20 · 18:30V. Cerny2.63121296113M. Volny1.441010111192LSep 4 · 08:59M. Heczko1.7311411113M. Volny2.00811551LSep 4 · 08:00M. Heczko1.73911911113M. Volny2.0011811892LSep 4 · 07:00A. Rinka1.67941111113M. Volny2.1011116582LSep 4 · 06:30M. Volny1.8071090R. Vavrecka1.911112113LSep 3 · 13:02A. Rinka1.721111113M. Volny2.007660LSep 3 · 12:30M. Volny1.831269101A. Rinka1.83101111123LSep 3 · 11:00M. Volny2.00111011582M. Heczko1.73612811113
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