TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13070723
Played Sep 4Finished
Alfred Rinka
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
911411116115118
Marek Volny
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:10 and never touched — 59.7% is still 59.7%
Graded at full timeMarek Volny to win
59.7%
59.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingAlfred Rinka above · Marek Volny below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 87 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Marek Volny at 59.7%
87 points played in total.
H2H Alfred Rinka 3–0 Marek Volny Marek Volny has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:10What took a side0 for · 4 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Rinka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-0 in 3
Rinka
Correct
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rinka 1604 vs Volny 1524
Rinka
Correct
both rated, 80 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rinka 60% vs Volny 20%
Rinka
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rinka 40% vs Volny 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Rinka +3 · Volny -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Rinka) · live re-read · sealed at 40% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Volny form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRinka 1.67 / Volny 2.10
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Rinka)+2.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13070723
Rinka1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite50% won 11 of 22
Up 2–0, closes it100% 5 of 5
Up 1–0, closes it75% 9 of 12
Volny2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog42% won 25 of 60
Down 0–1, comes back21% 6 of 28
Down 0–2, comes back7% 1 of 14
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeRinka3wins
AwayVolny0wins
1 of 3 to a deciderRinka leads 3–0, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rinka1Volny2n = 3Volny took 2 of 3
S2Rinka2Volny1n = 3Rinka took 2 of 3
S3Rinka3Volny0n = 3Rinka took 3 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricRinkaVolnyR − VBasisWins30+3in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match41.032.3+8.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRinkaVolnyBasisWin rate · lifetime27 / 57 vs 94 / 18147.4%51.9%27 / 57 vs 94 / 181Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RinkaRinka 1.67/Volny 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.6%
Rinka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Rinka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WSep 4 · 07:00A. Rinka—941111113M. Volny—11116582
WSep 3 · 13:02A. Rinka—1111113M. Volny—7660
WSep 3 · 12:30A. Rinka—101111123M. Volny—1269101
A. Rinka10
LSep 7 · 08:00A. Rinka1.61971141J. Levicky2.2011119113LSep 7 · 07:30M. Heczko1.831113143A. Rinka1.83611120WSep 7 · 06:00A. Rinka1.671011311113D. Oborny2.1012611762WSep 4 · 09:30A. Rinka1.611114113R. Vavrecka2.2061230WSep 4 · 08:30A. Rinka1.911111113R. Vavrecka1.805780WSep 4 · 06:00M. Heczko1.50117991A. Rinka2.5071111113WSep 3 · 13:02A. Rinka1.721111113M. Volny2.007660WSep 3 · 12:30M. Volny1.831269101A. Rinka1.83101111123LSep 3 · 11:30A. Rinka1.9111119472P. Danko1.80281111113LSep 3 · 10:30M. Heczko1.5371111113A. Rinka2.38119471
M. Volny10
LSep 4 · 08:59M. Heczko1.7311411113M. Volny2.00811551LSep 4 · 08:00M. Heczko1.73911911113M. Volny2.0011811892LSep 4 · 06:30M. Volny1.8071090R. Vavrecka1.911112113LSep 3 · 13:02A. Rinka1.721111113M. Volny2.007660LSep 3 · 12:30M. Volny1.831269101A. Rinka1.83101111123LSep 3 · 11:00M. Volny2.00111011582M. Heczko1.73612811113WSep 3 · 10:00P. Danko1.91128911112M. Volny1.801011112133LAug 18 · 21:30J. Levicky2.631011132113M. Volny1.44128111192LAug 18 · 20:00D. Oborny2.501111143M. Volny1.5078120WAug 18 · 19:00M. Heczko1.73881111102M. Volny2.00111179113
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