TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13063121
Played Sep 3Finished
Marcel Heczko
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
711119114117––
Alfred Rinka
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:18 and never touched — 55.1% is still 55.1%
Graded at full timeMarcel Heczko to win
55.1%
55.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMarcel Heczko above · Alfred Rinka below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 71 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Marcel Heczko at 55.1%
71 points played in total.
H2H Marcel Heczko 3–2 Alfred Rinka Alfred Rinka has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 08:18What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Heczko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Heczko 1587 vs Rinka 1504
Heczko
Correct
both rated, 83 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Heczko 20% vs Rinka 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Heczko 40% vs Rinka 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Heczko -1 · Rinka -4
Rinka
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Heczko) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rinka form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHeczko 1.53 / Rinka 2.38
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Heczko)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13063121
Heczko1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite62% won 75 of 122
Up 2–0, closes it94% 33 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it78% 54 of 69
Rinka2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog43% won 13 of 30
Down 0–1, comes back25% 5 of 20
Down 0–2, comes back9% 1 of 11
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeHeczko3wins
AwayRinka2wins
2 of 5 to a deciderHeczko leads 3–2, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHeczko75%3 of 4
AwayRinkan = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Heczko4Rinka1n = 5Heczko took 4 of 5
S2Heczko4Rinka1n = 5Heczko took 4 of 5
S3Heczko5Rinka0n = 5Heczko took 5 of 5
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home360%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away240%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricHeczkoRinkaH − RBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set41+3of 5Avg pointsper match38.431.0+7.4per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHeczkoRinkaBasisWin rate · lifetime275 / 572 vs 21 / 4948.1%42.9%275 / 572 vs 21 / 49Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.737.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HeczkoHeczko 1.53/Rinka 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.2%
Heczko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Heczko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WAug 30 · 16:30M. Heczko—1111113A. Rinka—1760
WAug 30 · 13:30M. Heczko—1111113A. Rinka—5880
LAug 30 · 12:30M. Heczko—71111692A. Rinka—119711113
WAug 22 · 08:30M. Heczko—1111113A. Rinka—6930
LAug 14 · 08:30M. Heczko—117121092A. Rinka—9111012113
M. Heczko10
LSep 7 · 08:30D. Oborny1.8011116113M. Heczko1.91961191WSep 7 · 07:30M. Heczko1.831113143A. Rinka1.83611120WSep 7 · 06:30J. Levicky1.804111081M. Heczko1.9111912113WSep 4 · 08:59M. Heczko1.7311411113M. Volny2.00811551WSep 4 · 08:00M. Heczko1.73911911113M. Volny2.0011811892LSep 4 · 07:30R. Vavrecka1.6161111113M. Heczko2.20117891LSep 4 · 06:00M. Heczko1.50117991A. Rinka2.5071111113LSep 3 · 13:29P. Danko1.44118119113M. Heczko2.6391181192LSep 3 · 12:00P. Danko1.571111133M. Heczko2.2569110WSep 3 · 11:00M. Volny2.00111011582M. Heczko1.73612811113
A. Rinka10
LSep 7 · 08:00A. Rinka1.61971141J. Levicky2.2011119113LSep 7 · 07:30M. Heczko1.831113143A. Rinka1.83611120WSep 7 · 06:00A. Rinka1.671011311113D. Oborny2.1012611762WSep 4 · 09:30A. Rinka1.611114113R. Vavrecka2.2061230WSep 4 · 08:30A. Rinka1.911111113R. Vavrecka1.805780WSep 4 · 07:00A. Rinka1.67941111113M. Volny2.1011116582WSep 4 · 06:00M. Heczko1.50117991A. Rinka2.5071111113WSep 3 · 13:02A. Rinka1.721111113M. Volny2.007660WSep 3 · 12:30M. Volny1.831269101A. Rinka1.83101111123LSep 3 · 11:30A. Rinka1.9111119472P. Danko1.80281111113
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