TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13070863
Played Sep 4Finished
Marcel Heczko
Home
1.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
117711911911––
Alfred Rinka
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:38 and never touched — 55.1% is still 55.1%
Graded at full timeMarcel Heczko to win
55.1%
55.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMarcel Heczko above · Alfred Rinka below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 76 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Marcel Heczko at 55.1%
76 points played in total.
H2H Marcel Heczko 4–3 Alfred Rinka Alfred Rinka has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:38What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Heczko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-3 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Heczko 1578 vs Rinka 1604
Rinka
Correct
both rated, 26 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Heczko 40% vs Rinka 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Heczko 40% vs Rinka 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Heczko -2 · Rinka +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Heczko) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Heczko form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHeczko 1.50 / Rinka 2.50
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Heczko)-1.8pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13070863
Heczko1.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite62% won 78 of 126
Up 2–0, closes it94% 33 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it77% 54 of 70
Rinka2.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 16 of 35
Down 0–1, comes back32% 7 of 22
Down 0–2, comes back9% 1 of 11
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeHeczko4wins
AwayRinka3wins
2 of 7 to a deciderHeczko leads 4–3, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHeczko60%3 of 5
AwayRinkan = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Heczko5Rinka2n = 7Heczko took 5 of 7
S2Heczko5Rinka2n = 7Heczko took 5 of 7
S3Heczko6Rinka1n = 7Heczko took 6 of 7
S4Heczko1Rinka3n = 4Rinka took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home343%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away229%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricHeczkoRinkaH − RBasisWins43+1in 7 meetingsFirst set52+3of 7Avg pointsper match38.332.3+6.0per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHeczkoRinkaBasisWin rate · lifetime279 / 580 vs 27 / 5748.1%47.4%279 / 580 vs 27 / 57Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.737.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HeczkoHeczko 1.50/Rinka 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.7%
Heczko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Rinka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LSep 4 · 06:00M. Heczko—117991A. Rinka—71111113
WSep 3 · 10:30M. Heczko—71111113A. Rinka—119471
WAug 30 · 16:30M. Heczko—1111113A. Rinka—1760
WAug 30 · 13:30M. Heczko—1111113A. Rinka—5880
LAug 30 · 12:30M. Heczko—71111692A. Rinka—119711113
WAug 22 · 08:30M. Heczko—1111113A. Rinka—6930
LAug 14 · 08:30M. Heczko—117121092A. Rinka—9111012113
M. Heczko10
LSep 7 · 08:30D. Oborny1.8011116113M. Heczko1.91961191WSep 7 · 07:30M. Heczko1.831113143A. Rinka1.83611120WSep 7 · 06:30J. Levicky1.804111081M. Heczko1.9111912113WSep 4 · 08:59M. Heczko1.7311411113M. Volny2.00811551WSep 4 · 08:00M. Heczko1.73911911113M. Volny2.0011811892LSep 4 · 07:30R. Vavrecka1.6161111113M. Heczko2.20117891LSep 3 · 13:29P. Danko1.44118119113M. Heczko2.6391181192LSep 3 · 12:00P. Danko1.571111133M. Heczko2.2569110WSep 3 · 11:00M. Volny2.00111011582M. Heczko1.73612811113WSep 3 · 10:30M. Heczko1.5371111113A. Rinka2.38119471
A. Rinka10
LSep 7 · 08:00A. Rinka1.61971141J. Levicky2.2011119113LSep 7 · 07:30M. Heczko1.831113143A. Rinka1.83611120WSep 7 · 06:00A. Rinka1.671011311113D. Oborny2.1012611762WSep 4 · 09:30A. Rinka1.611114113R. Vavrecka2.2061230WSep 4 · 08:30A. Rinka1.911111113R. Vavrecka1.805780WSep 4 · 07:00A. Rinka1.67941111113M. Volny2.1011116582WSep 3 · 13:02A. Rinka1.721111113M. Volny2.007660WSep 3 · 12:30M. Volny1.831269101A. Rinka1.83101111123LSep 3 · 11:30A. Rinka1.9111119472P. Danko1.80281111113LSep 3 · 10:30M. Heczko1.5371111113A. Rinka2.38119471
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