TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12450014
Played Aug 18Finished
Dominik Oborny
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1171181412––––
Marek Volny
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:11 and never touched — 64.8% is still 64.8%
Graded at full timeMarek Volny to win
64.8%
64.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingDominik Oborny above · Marek Volny below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 14-12
Point 63 set 3, 14-12 — our read held Marek Volny at 64.8%
63 points played in total.
H2H Dominik Oborny 3–8 Marek Volny Dominik Oborny has won 3 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:11What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Volny
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-8 in 11
Volny
Wrong
gap of 5 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Oborny 1660 vs Volny 1658
Oborny
Correct
both rated, 1 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Oborny 80% vs Volny 60%
Oborny
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Oborny 80% vs Volny 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Oborny -1 · Volny +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Volny) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Oborny form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOborny 2.50 / Volny 1.50
Signal prob.34% / 67%
Edge (Volny)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12450014
Oborny2.50
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog40% won 58 of 145
Down 0–1, comes back23% 20 of 86
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 40
Volny1.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite59% won 65 of 110
Up 2–0, closes it97% 33 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it80% 49 of 61
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOborny3wins
AwayVolny7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderVolny leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOborny75%3 of 4
AwayVolny100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Oborny4Volny6n = 10Volny took 6 of 10
S2Oborny6Volny4n = 10Oborny took 6 of 10
S3Oborny3Volny7n = 10Volny took 7 of 10
S4Oborny1Volny6n = 7Volny took 6 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricObornyVolnyO − VBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match33.539.2−5.7per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricObornyVolnyBasisWin rate · lifetime309 / 594 vs 93 / 17152%54.4%309 / 594 vs 93 / 171Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.937.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VolnyOborny 2.50/Volny 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.5%
Volny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Oborny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 6 · 20:00D. Oborny—6220M. Volny—1111113
WAug 2 · 20:00D. Oborny—111178113M. Volny—49111182
LJul 26 · 15:00D. Oborny—661181M. Volny—11117113
LJul 19 · 20:30D. Oborny—1111138112M. Volny—951511133
WJul 7 · 21:30D. Oborny—111110113M. Volny—951291
WJul 7 · 18:00D. Oborny—1111143M. Volny—94120
LJul 5 · 20:00D. Oborny—4870M. Volny—1111113
LApr 5 · 20:58D. Oborny—411931M. Volny—11811113
LApr 5 · 19:00D. Oborny—1112341M. Volny—131011113
LApr 1 · 14:30D. Oborny—6111191M. Volny—11139113
D. Oborny10
WSep 7 · 08:30D. Oborny1.8011116113M. Heczko1.91961191WSep 7 · 07:00D. Oborny1.83111169113J. Levicky1.8387111162LSep 7 · 06:00A. Rinka1.671011311113D. Oborny2.1012611762WSep 2 · 20:58D. Oborny1.731191112113J. Levicky2.0061161482LSep 2 · 20:00D. Oborny1.73911891J. Levicky2.0011711113LSep 2 · 19:30L. Velicka2.255111111123D. Oborny1.57119137102WSep 2 · 18:00D. Oborny1.801111113T. Milota1.914790WAug 31 · 20:58M. Heczko2.0078111152D. Oborny1.73111199113LAug 31 · 20:00D. Oborny1.91411110M. Heczko1.801113133LAug 31 · 19:30T. Milota2.0011611113D. Oborny1.73711671
M. Volny10
LSep 4 · 08:59M. Heczko1.7311411113M. Volny2.00811551LSep 4 · 08:00M. Heczko1.73911911113M. Volny2.0011811892LSep 4 · 07:00A. Rinka1.67941111113M. Volny2.1011116582LSep 4 · 06:30M. Volny1.8071090R. Vavrecka1.911112113LSep 3 · 13:02A. Rinka1.721111113M. Volny2.007660LSep 3 · 12:30M. Volny1.831269101A. Rinka1.83101111123LSep 3 · 11:00M. Volny2.00111011582M. Heczko1.73612811113WSep 3 · 10:00P. Danko1.91128911112M. Volny1.801011112133LAug 18 · 21:30J. Levicky2.631011132113M. Volny1.44128111192WAug 18 · 19:00M. Heczko1.73881111102M. Volny2.00111179113
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