TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Pavel Smetka vs Dalimil Machander 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 23Finished
Pavel Smetka
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 5
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811711114611––
Dalimil Machander
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:22 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePavel Smetka to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPavel Smetka above · Dalimil Machander below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 69 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Pavel Smetka at 54.0%
69 points played in total.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:22What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Machander
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Smetka 1519 vs Machander 1518
Smetka
Wrong
both rated, 1 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Smetka 0% vs Machander 60%
Machander
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Smetka 40% vs Machander 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Smetka -5 · Machander +2
Smetka
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Machander) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Smetka form (0%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSmetka 2.10 / Machander 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Machander)+0.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13178919
Smetka2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 7 of 18
Down 0–1, comes back8% 1 of 12
Down 0–2, comes back11% 1 of 9
Machander1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite53% won 42 of 80
Up 2–0, closes it88% 15 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it73% 32 of 44
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricSmetkaMachanderBasisWin rate · lifetime69 / 151 vs 172 / 37545.7%45.9%69 / 151 vs 172 / 375Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match34.240.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MachanderSmetka 2.10/Machander 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.8%
Machander · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Machander won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
P. Smetka10
LSep 23 · 14:00R. Vavrecka1.501111113P. Smetka2.508180LApr 25 · 17:05D. Heczko1.201111113P. Smetka4.335650LApr 25 · 16:00P. Smetka2.639740S. Byrtus1.441111113LApr 25 · 15:30D. Heczko1.441111113P. Smetka2.639450LApr 25 · 14:00P. Smetka1.6757120M. Volny2.101111143WApr 23 · 13:29V. Adamczyk1.5376100P. Smetka2.381111123WApr 23 · 12:30M. Volny1.738760P. Smetka2.001111113LApr 23 · 11:30P. Smetka2.2071110121V. Adamczyk1.6111412143WApr 23 · 10:30J. Levicky2.635950P. Smetka1.441111113WApr 15 · 13:30P. Smetka1.73111110113J. Cabak2.00681241
D. Machander10
WSep 23 · 14:30D. Machander1.80111111113L. Velicka1.91136971WSep 22 · 08:58D. Machander2.10811116113S. Byrtus1.6711681192LSep 22 · 08:30A. Rinka1.501211113D. Machander2.5010940WSep 22 · 07:30D. Machander2.20115811113S. Byrtus1.6171111972LSep 22 · 06:30P. Danko1.571111113D. Machander2.256890LSep 20 · 09:17D. Oborny1.4011117113D. Machander2.75871171LSep 20 · 08:30M. Heczko1.61111199113D. Machander2.2079111192LSep 20 · 07:30D. Machander2.2010139101A. Rinka1.61121111123WSep 20 · 06:30D. Oborny1.5311117642D. Machander2.38641111113LSep 18 · 20:59J. Levicky2.001111113D. Machander1.739640
Upcoming Matches
P. Smetka
D. Machander
Nothing scheduled
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