TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 20Finished
Dalimil Machander
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
101213119111012––
Alfred Rinka
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:12 and never touched — 73.3% is still 73.3%
Graded at full timeAlfred Rinka to win
73.3%
73.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDalimil Machander above · Alfred Rinka below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 88 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Alfred Rinka at 73.3%
88 points played in total.
H2H Dalimil Machander 1–2 Alfred Rinka Dalimil Machander has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:12What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Rinka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Machander 1519 vs Rinka 1606
Rinka
Correct
both rated, 87 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Machander 20% vs Rinka 40%
Rinka
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Machander 20% vs Rinka 60%
Rinka
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Machander +1 · Rinka -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Rinka) · live re-read · sealed at 73% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rinka form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMachander 2.20 / Rinka 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 59%
Edge (Rinka)+0.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13159419
Machander2.20
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog42% won 60 of 143
Down 0–1, comes back33% 25 of 77
Down 0–2, comes back17% 8 of 46
Rinka1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 17 of 28
Up 2–0, closes it100% 8 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it75% 12 of 16
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeMachander1wins
AwayRinka2wins
1 of 3 to a deciderRinka leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Machander1Rinka2n = 3Rinka took 2 of 3
S2Machander1Rinka2n = 3Rinka took 2 of 3
S3Machander0Rinka3n = 3Rinka took 3 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricMachanderRinkaM − RBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match36.740.3−3.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMachanderRinkaBasisWin rate · lifetime169 / 368 vs 35 / 7145.9%49.3%169 / 368 vs 35 / 71Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.337.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RinkaMachander 2.20/Rinka 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.5%
Rinka · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Rinka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LSep 20 · 07:30D. Machander4210139101A. Rinka46121111123
LAug 30 · 10:00D. Machander203890A. Rinka331111113
WJun 11 · 16:30D. Machander48116911113A. Rinka4281111662
D. Machander10
WSep 20 · 06:30D. Oborny1.5311117642D. Machander2.38641111113LSep 18 · 20:59J. Levicky2.001111113D. Machander1.739640LSep 18 · 20:00D. Machander1.57791281J. Levicky2.25111110113LSep 18 · 19:30R. Vavrecka2.101111113D. Machander1.675950LSep 18 · 18:00D. Machander1.918980D. Oborny1.801111113LSep 15 · 17:00D. Machander1.859101191A. Walek1.8511124113LSep 15 · 16:00F. Laburda1.61811114113D. Machander2.2011961192LSep 15 · 15:00L. Martinak1.73111110113D. Machander2.00851261WSep 15 · 14:30D. Machander1.83151267113A. Walek1.831310111162LSep 14 · 17:03D. Oborny1.8311611113D. Machander1.83711981
A. Rinka10
WSep 20 · 08:00A. Rinka1.61913119113D. Oborny2.20111161132LSep 20 · 06:00A. Rinka2.209650M. Heczko1.611111113WSep 15 · 12:58A. Rinka1.6711115113J. Levicky2.10741151WSep 15 · 12:00A. Rinka1.73115911113J. Levicky2.0061111772LSep 15 · 11:30M. Heczko1.6711811113A. Rinka2.10611571LSep 15 · 10:00A. Rinka1.73145771J. Schwan2.00121111113WSep 13 · 09:29A. Rinka1.5011116113O. Hradil2.50581161WSep 13 · 08:30M. Blejchar2.2011941282A. Rinka1.619111110113WSep 13 · 07:30A. Rinka1.801111113P. Chovanec1.918360WSep 13 · 06:30O. Hradil2.3811147872A. Rinka1.533121111113
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