TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Karel Polak vs Miroslav Vana 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 22Finished
Karel Polak
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
12102111012911––
Miroslav Vana
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:09 and never touched — 60.5% is still 60.5%
Graded at full timeMiroslav Vana to win
60.5%
60.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKarel Polak above · Miroslav Vana below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 2-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 77 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Miroslav Vana at 60.5%
77 points played in total.
H2H Karel Polak 1–4 Miroslav Vana Karel Polak has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:09What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Vana
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-4 in 5
Vana
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Polak 1377 vs Vana 1498
Vana
Correct
both rated, 122 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Polak 40% vs Vana 60%
Vana
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Polak 30% vs Vana 50%
Vana
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Polak -1 · Vana +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Vana)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPolak 2.25 / Vana 1.57
Signal prob.40% / 61%
Edge (Vana)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13173393
Polak2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog60% won 33 of 55
Down 0–1, comes back35% 7 of 20
Down 0–2, comes back29% 4 of 14
Vana1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite60% won 48 of 80
Up 2–0, closes it95% 20 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it75% 38 of 51
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomePolak1wins
AwayVana4wins
2 of 5 to a deciderVana leads 4–1, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePolakn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayVana100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Polak2Vana3n = 5Vana took 3 of 5
S2Polak1Vana4n = 5Vana took 4 of 5
S3Polak3Vana2n = 5Polak took 3 of 5
S4Polak1Vana2n = 3Vana took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away240%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricPolakVanaP − VBasisWins14−3in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match35.843.0−7.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPolakVanaBasisWin rate · lifetime160 / 321 vs 186 / 35249.8%52.8%160 / 321 vs 186 / 352Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.339.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VanaPolak 2.25/Vana 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.5%
Vana · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Vana won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LMar 18 · 08:00K. Polak4498111242M. Vana491111610113
LFeb 10 · 09:28K. Polak361181161M. Vana4161113113
LFeb 10 · 07:30K. Polak184680M. Vana331111113
LJan 8 · 12:30K. Polak45613111052M. Vana491111412113
K. Polak10
WSep 22 · 15:30M. Hasman1.8398110K. Polak1.831111133LSep 22 · 15:00K. Polak2.0010870O. Plyska1.731211113LSep 21 · 16:58M. Melisek2.501111113K. Polak1.503890WSep 21 · 16:00K. Polak1.611114123M. Melisek2.20512100LSep 21 · 14:30E. Ondracek1.83911137123K. Polak1.831181111102LSep 21 · 14:00P. Fiser1.731111113K. Polak2.004870WSep 17 · 16:39K. Polak1.73111111113J. Blazek2.00981381WSep 17 · 16:00M. Melisek1.83111111652K. Polak1.83561311113LSep 17 · 15:00E. Ondracek2.00137157113K. Polak1.731111131152LSep 17 · 13:30J. Blazek2.251111113K. Polak1.579960
M. Vana10
WSep 22 · 14:30M. Hasman2.50113951M. Vana1.5091111113WSep 21 · 20:33M. Vana1.57111169113J. Vasek2.2567111132WSep 21 · 19:30J. Vasek2.00851261M. Vana1.73111110113LSep 21 · 19:00M. Vana1.9171060O. Plyska1.801112113LSep 21 · 18:00M. Vana2.2510870L. Tuma1.571211113WSep 19 · 11:15T. Hanke1.5741090M. Vana2.251112113WSep 19 · 10:45M. Vana1.91611136133O. Plyska1.801171111112LSep 19 · 09:45M. Vana1.83116461T. Bertho1.8361111113WSep 9 · 20:39M. Vana1.50111110113J. Hanacek2.50371281LSep 9 · 20:00J. Mejzlik3.004111311113M. Vana1.36119111382
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