TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13142923
Played Sep 17Finished
Jan Blazek
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119119116––––
Karel Polak
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:48 and never touched — 60.5% is still 60.5%
Graded at full timeKarel Polak to win
60.5%
60.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Blazek above · Karel Polak below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 57 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Karel Polak at 60.5%
57 points played in total.
H2H Jan Blazek 2–5 Karel Polak Jan Blazek has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:48What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Polak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-5 in 7
Polak
Wrong
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Blazek 1392 vs Polak 1413
Polak
Wrong
both rated, 21 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Blazek 60% vs Polak 40%
Blazek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Blazek 50% vs Polak 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Blazek +1 · Polak -3
Polak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Polak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Polak form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBlazek 2.25 / Polak 1.57
Signal prob.40% / 61%
Edge (Polak)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13142923
Blazek2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 51 of 133
Down 0–1, comes back21% 16 of 77
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 36
Polak1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 27 of 45
Up 2–0, closes it100% 14 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it86% 18 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeBlazek2wins
AwayPolak5wins
3 of 7 to a deciderPolak leads 5–2, and 3 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBlazekn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayPolak80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Blazek2Polak5n = 7Polak took 5 of 7
S2Blazek5Polak2n = 7Blazek took 5 of 7
S3Blazek2Polak5n = 7Polak took 5 of 7
S4Blazek1Polak3n = 4Polak took 3 of 4
S5Blazek1Polak2n = 3Polak took 2 of 3
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away229%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away229%
These 7 meetings
MetricBlazekPolakB − PBasisWins25−3in 7 meetingsFirst set25−3of 7Avg pointsper match39.640.3−0.7per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBlazekPolakBasisWin rate · lifetime168 / 385 vs 158 / 31443.6%50.3%168 / 385 vs 158 / 314Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.138.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PolakBlazek 2.25/Polak 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.5%
Polak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Blazek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LApr 23 · 10:00J. Blazek48111111962K. Polak49591311113
WJan 23 · 14:30J. Blazek381511123K. Polak32139100
LJan 20 · 17:45J. Blazek409119111K. Polak4211711133
LJan 20 · 15:15J. Blazek229490K. Polak331111113
LJan 14 · 14:30J. Blazek4881111992K. Polak43115511113
LDec 18 · 22:15J. Blazek31910120K. Polak371112143
WDec 18 · 21:00J. Blazek50811911113K. Polak4611811972
J. Blazek10
LSep 17 · 14:30J. Blazek2.20571231M. Melisek1.61111110113WSep 15 · 13:08J. Jnr1.739990J. Blazek2.001111113LSep 15 · 11:30P. Moulis1.911481116113J. Blazek1.80161181492WSep 15 · 11:00J. Blazek2.25811912113J. Jnr1.57117111072WSep 15 · 10:00J. Blazek1.7311119113M. Obraz2.00591191LSep 14 · 17:10L. Tuma1.401111113J. Blazek2.755880LSep 14 · 15:30J. Blazek2.38411781E. Ondracek1.5311911113WSep 14 · 14:30J. Blazek3.0011118113L. Tuma1.36461151WSep 14 · 13:30J. Blazek2.201216113J. Hanacek1.61101470LSep 9 · 12:29J. Blazek2.10211471M. Melisek1.6711811113
K. Polak10
LAug 9 · 08:33J. Seeman2.2011119133K. Polak1.617811111LAug 9 · 07:30K. Polak1.83531291K. Jirousek1.83111110113LAug 9 · 06:30K. Polak2.1071181192J. Hanacek1.67117117113WAug 9 · 05:30K. Polak1.5011117113J. Seeman2.50651181WAug 4 · 08:44P. Moulis2.5011511682K. Polak1.50611911113LAug 4 · 07:30K. Polak1.4431151192P. Moulis2.63115116113WAug 4 · 06:30K. Polak1.5711126113J. Puk2.255101191WAug 4 · 05:30K. Polak1.671111113J. Seeman2.109590LAug 3 · 09:08K. Polak1.73861171J. Mejzlik2.0011116113WAug 3 · 08:00K. Polak1.731111113J. Puk2.009870
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