TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12352504
Played Aug 3Finished
Karel Polak
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119118117––––
Jaroslav Puk
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:47 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKarel Polak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKarel Polak above · Jaroslav Puk below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 57 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Karel Polak at 54.0%
57 points played in total.
H2H Karel Polak 4–4 Jaroslav Puk Dead even across their 8 meetings.
Last 8 · 4–4Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:47What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Polak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-4 in 8
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Polak 1410 vs Puk 1393
Polak
Correct
both rated, 17 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Polak 60% vs Puk 80%
Puk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Polak 40% vs Puk 60%
Puk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Polak -1 · Puk +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Polak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Puk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPolak 1.73 / Puk 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Polak)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #12352504
Polak1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 28 of 47
Up 2–0, closes it100% 12 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it77% 17 of 22
Puk2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog37% won 28 of 75
Down 0–1, comes back25% 12 of 49
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 31
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomePolak4wins
AwayPuk4wins
3 of 8 to a deciderLevel at 4–4, and 3 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePolak80%4 of 5
AwayPuk100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Polak5Puk3n = 8Polak took 5 of 8
S2Polak3Puk5n = 8Puk took 5 of 8
S3Polak1Puk7n = 8Puk took 7 of 8
S4Polak3Puk1n = 4Polak took 3 of 4
S5Polak2Puk1n = 3Polak took 2 of 3
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home225%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away338%
These 8 meetings
MetricPolakPukPolak − PukBasisWins440in 8 meetingsFirst set53+2of 8Avg pointsper match35.837.1−1.3per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPolakPukBasisWin rate · lifetime153 / 304 vs 150 / 31450.3%47.8%153 / 304 vs 150 / 314Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.437.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PolakPolak 1.73/Puk 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Polak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Polak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WJul 7 · 12:33K. Polak331111113J. Puk207490
WJul 7 · 10:00K. Polak4011117113J. Puk32691161
LJul 6 · 06:58K. Polak4211961152J. Puk46811115113
LJul 2 · 08:34K. Polak2813780J. Puk371511113
LJul 2 · 05:30K. Polak2810990J. Puk341211113
WJun 26 · 09:03K. Polak45121156113J. Puk48109111172
WJun 26 · 06:45K. Polak521210711123J. Puk471012114102
LMar 18 · 06:30K. Polak187560J. Puk331111113
K. Polak10
LSep 17 · 15:00E. Ondracek2.00137157113K. Polak1.731111131152LSep 17 · 13:30J. Blazek2.251111113K. Polak1.579960LAug 9 · 08:33J. Seeman2.2011119133K. Polak1.617811111LAug 9 · 07:30K. Polak1.83531291K. Jirousek1.83111110113LAug 9 · 06:30K. Polak2.1071181192J. Hanacek1.67117117113WAug 9 · 05:30K. Polak1.5011117113J. Seeman2.50651181WAug 4 · 08:44P. Moulis2.5011511682K. Polak1.50611911113LAug 4 · 07:30K. Polak1.4431151192P. Moulis2.63115116113WAug 4 · 06:30K. Polak1.5711126113J. Puk2.255101191WAug 4 · 05:30K. Polak1.671111113J. Seeman2.109590
J. Puk10
LSep 11 · 09:19J. Puk1.91101141162F. Husek1.80129114113WSep 11 · 08:00J. Puk1.571310128133P. Moulis2.2511121011112WSep 11 · 06:30M. Snizek3.005960J. Puk1.361111113WSep 11 · 06:00F. Husek1.619101191J. Puk2.2011124113LSep 8 · 09:03J. Puk2.00691171A. Dvoracek1.7311117113WSep 8 · 08:00A. Dvoracek1.441012481J. Puk2.63121011113LSep 8 · 07:00J. Mejzlik1.67113114113J. Puk2.1071191172LSep 8 · 05:30O. Plyska1.441113113J. Puk2.6351160WSep 4 · 09:23J. Puk1.83119116133M. Vorel1.83611711112LAug 4 · 06:30K. Polak1.5711126113J. Puk2.255101191
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