TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12384647
Played Aug 9Finished
Karel Polak
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
711117811117911
Josef Hanacek
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:08 and never touched — 63.8% is still 63.8%
Graded at full timeJosef Hanacek to win
63.8%
63.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKarel Polak above · Josef Hanacek below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 93 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Josef Hanacek at 63.8%
93 points played in total.
H2H Karel Polak 11–16 Josef Hanacek Karel Polak has won 11 of their 27 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:08What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Hanacek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-16 in 27
Hanacek
Correct
gap of 5 in 27, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Polak 1413 vs Hanacek 1483
Hanacek
Correct
both rated, 70 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Polak 80% vs Hanacek 40%
Polak
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Polak 70% vs Hanacek 50%
Polak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Polak +2 · Hanacek -3
Hanacek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Hanacek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hanacek form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPolak 2.10 / Hanacek 1.67
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Hanacek)+8.0pp
Setka Cup · #12384647
Polak2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog47% won 39 of 83
Down 0–1, comes back24% 8 of 34
Down 0–2, comes back21% 5 of 24
Hanacek1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite57% won 66 of 116
Up 2–0, closes it90% 27 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it81% 42 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePolak5wins
AwayHanacek5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePolak40%2 of 5
AwayHanacek40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Polak5Hanacek5n = 10split evenly
S2Polak5Hanacek5n = 10split evenly
S3Polak3Hanacek7n = 10Hanacek took 7 of 10
S4Polak6Hanacek3n = 9Polak took 6 of 9
S5Polak3Hanacek3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPolakHanacekP − HBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match42.142.4−0.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPolakHanacekBasisWin rate · lifetime158 / 314 vs 199 / 37850.3%52.7%158 / 314 vs 199 / 378Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.439.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HanacekPolak 2.10/Hanacek 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.8%
Hanacek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Hanacek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 9 · 06:30K. Polak4671181192J. Hanacek47117117113
WJul 1 · 08:59K. Polak3711411113J. Hanacek36811891
WJul 1 · 06:00K. Polak4151111143J. Hanacek371168121
WJun 6 · 06:30K. Polak50811911113J. Hanacek3611411642
LFeb 22 · 20:30K. Polak2310760J. Hanacek341211113
LFeb 21 · 11:45K. Polak4311117592J. Hanacek49791111113
LJan 10 · 09:59K. Polak48117141152J. Hanacek53811167113
WJan 10 · 08:00K. Polak48118117113J. Hanacek4181121192
LDec 28 · 19:45K. Polak371181081J. Hanacek4391112113
WDec 25 · 16:30K. Polak48711811113J. Hanacek4811811992
K. Polak10
LSep 17 · 15:00E. Ondracek2.00137157113K. Polak1.731111131152LSep 17 · 13:30J. Blazek2.251111113K. Polak1.579960LAug 9 · 08:33J. Seeman2.2011119133K. Polak1.617811111LAug 9 · 07:30K. Polak1.83531291K. Jirousek1.83111110113WAug 9 · 05:30K. Polak1.5011117113J. Seeman2.50651181WAug 4 · 08:44P. Moulis2.5011511682K. Polak1.50611911113LAug 4 · 07:30K. Polak1.4431151192P. Moulis2.63115116113WAug 4 · 06:30K. Polak1.5711126113J. Puk2.255101191WAug 4 · 05:30K. Polak1.671111113J. Seeman2.109590LAug 3 · 09:08K. Polak1.73861171J. Mejzlik2.0011116113
J. Hanacek10
LSep 17 · 08:58A. Dvoracek1.8311611113J. Hanacek1.83711881WSep 17 · 08:00J. Hanacek2.0011129143A. Dvoracek1.7351011121LSep 17 · 06:30K. Jirousek1.8361111143J. Hanacek1.831188121LSep 17 · 06:00M. Vorel2.50118137113J. Hanacek1.50611111172WSep 15 · 20:39J. Hanacek2.2081111113F. Schmidtmayer1.61115681LSep 15 · 19:30F. Schmidtmayer1.8011119113J. Hanacek1.91891191WSep 15 · 19:00J. Hanacek1.8311137113M. Barton1.835111191WSep 15 · 18:00J. Hanacek2.00111110113A. Dvoracek1.73981281WSep 14 · 16:39J. Hanacek2.101151111113E. Ondracek1.6713117562LSep 14 · 16:00L. Tuma1.73741211113J. Hanacek2.00111110742
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