TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12356736
Played Aug 4Finished
Karel Polak
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1151210611119––
Jaroslav Puk
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:05 and never touched — 59.9% is still 59.9%
Graded at full timeKarel Polak to win
59.9%
59.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKarel Polak above · Jaroslav Puk below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 75 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Karel Polak at 59.9%
75 points played in total.
H2H Karel Polak 6–4 Jaroslav Puk Jaroslav Puk has won 4 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:05What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Polak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-4 in 10
Polak
Correct
gap of 2 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Polak 1439 vs Puk 1334
Polak
Correct
both rated, 104 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Polak 60% vs Puk 40%
Polak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Polak 50% vs Puk 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Polak +1 · Puk -3
Puk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Polak) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPolak 1.57 / Puk 2.25
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Polak)+3.0pp
Setka Cup · #12356736
Polak1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 32 of 54
Up 2–0, closes it100% 15 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it80% 20 of 25
Puk2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog37% won 30 of 81
Down 0–1, comes back23% 12 of 53
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 35
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePolak6wins
AwayPuk4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPolak leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePolak85.7%6 of 7
AwayPuk100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Polak7Puk3n = 10Polak took 7 of 10
S2Polak5Puk5n = 10split evenly
S3Polak2Puk8n = 10Puk took 8 of 10
S4Polak4Puk1n = 5Polak took 4 of 5
S5Polak2Puk1n = 3Polak took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricPolakPukPolak − PukBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match35.935.6+0.3per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPolakPukBasisWin rate · lifetime157 / 310 vs 149 / 31550.7%47.3%157 / 310 vs 149 / 315Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.437.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PolakPolak 1.57/Puk 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.9%
Polak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Polak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 4 · 06:30K. Polak4011126113J. Puk355101191
WAug 3 · 08:00K. Polak331111113J. Puk249870
WJul 7 · 12:33K. Polak331111113J. Puk207490
WJul 7 · 10:00K. Polak4011117113J. Puk32691161
LJul 6 · 06:58K. Polak4211961152J. Puk46811115113
LJul 2 · 08:34K. Polak2813780J. Puk371511113
LJul 2 · 05:30K. Polak2810990J. Puk341211113
WJun 26 · 09:03K. Polak45121156113J. Puk48109111172
WJun 26 · 06:45K. Polak521210711123J. Puk471012114102
LMar 18 · 06:30K. Polak187560J. Puk331111113
K. Polak10
LSep 17 · 15:00E. Ondracek2.00137157113K. Polak1.731111131152LSep 17 · 13:30J. Blazek2.251111113K. Polak1.579960LAug 9 · 08:33J. Seeman2.2011119133K. Polak1.617811111LAug 9 · 07:30K. Polak1.83531291K. Jirousek1.83111110113LAug 9 · 06:30K. Polak2.1071181192J. Hanacek1.67117117113WAug 9 · 05:30K. Polak1.5011117113J. Seeman2.50651181WAug 4 · 08:44P. Moulis2.5011511682K. Polak1.50611911113LAug 4 · 07:30K. Polak1.4431151192P. Moulis2.63115116113WAug 4 · 05:30K. Polak1.671111113J. Seeman2.109590LAug 3 · 09:08K. Polak1.73861171J. Mejzlik2.0011116113
J. Puk10
LSep 11 · 09:19J. Puk1.91101141162F. Husek1.80129114113WSep 11 · 08:00J. Puk1.571310128133P. Moulis2.2511121011112WSep 11 · 06:30M. Snizek3.005960J. Puk1.361111113WSep 11 · 06:00F. Husek1.619101191J. Puk2.2011124113LSep 8 · 09:03J. Puk2.00691171A. Dvoracek1.7311117113WSep 8 · 08:00A. Dvoracek1.441012481J. Puk2.63121011113LSep 8 · 07:00J. Mejzlik1.67113114113J. Puk2.1071191172LSep 8 · 05:30O. Plyska1.441113113J. Puk2.6351160WSep 4 · 09:23J. Puk1.83119116133M. Vorel1.83611711112LSep 4 · 08:00J. Puk1.6711141110142P. Moulis2.10816912163
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.