TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12356954
Played Aug 4Finished
Karel Polak
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119115119––––
Jan Seeman
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:08 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKarel Polak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKarel Polak above · Jan Seeman below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 56 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Karel Polak at 54.0%
56 points played in total.
H2H Karel Polak 9–7 Jan Seeman Jan Seeman has won 7 of their 16 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:08What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Polak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-7 in 16
Polak
Correct
gap of 2 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Polak 1424 vs Seeman 1354
Polak
Correct
both rated, 70 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Polak 60% vs Seeman 80%
Seeman
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Polak 40% vs Seeman 60%
Seeman
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Polak -1 · Seeman +3
Seeman
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Polak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Seeman form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPolak 1.67 / Seeman 2.10
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Polak)-1.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #12356954
Polak1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 29 of 50
Up 2–0, closes it100% 13 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it78% 18 of 23
Seeman2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog38% won 25 of 66
Down 0–1, comes back32% 12 of 37
Down 0–2, comes back12% 2 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePolak5wins
AwaySeeman5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePolak80%4 of 5
AwaySeeman80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Polak5Seeman5n = 10split evenly
S2Polak7Seeman3n = 10Polak took 7 of 10
S3Polak4Seeman6n = 10Seeman took 6 of 10
S4Polak3Seeman3n = 6split evenly
S5Polak1Seeman2n = 3Seeman took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricPolakSeemanP − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.039.4−1.4per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPolakSeemanBasisWin rate · lifetime154 / 306 vs 132 / 26550.3%49.8%154 / 306 vs 132 / 265Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.339.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PolakPolak 1.67/Seeman 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Polak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Polak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WMar 28 · 11:45K. Polak4391211113J. Seeman391110991
LFeb 22 · 21:27K. Polak4412771172J. Seeman521011119113
WFeb 22 · 19:30K. Polak351212113J. Seeman27101070
LFeb 21 · 13:50K. Polak194780J. Seeman331111113
LFeb 21 · 12:45K. Polak163940J. Seeman31111193
LDec 28 · 21:38K. Polak538111310112J. Seeman561191112133
WDec 28 · 20:15K. Polak49131168113J. Seeman46117111162
WDec 14 · 19:45K. Polak48111412113J. Seeman419121461
WDec 12 · 19:00K. Polak331111113J. Seeman259880
LDec 6 · 21:38K. Polak409117131J. Seeman4411711153
K. Polak10
LSep 17 · 15:00E. Ondracek2.00137157113K. Polak1.731111131152LSep 17 · 13:30J. Blazek2.251111113K. Polak1.579960LAug 9 · 08:33J. Seeman2.2011119133K. Polak1.617811111LAug 9 · 07:30K. Polak1.83531291K. Jirousek1.83111110113LAug 9 · 06:30K. Polak2.1071181192J. Hanacek1.67117117113WAug 9 · 05:30K. Polak1.5011117113J. Seeman2.50651181WAug 4 · 08:44P. Moulis2.5011511682K. Polak1.50611911113LAug 4 · 07:30K. Polak1.4431151192P. Moulis2.63115116113WAug 4 · 06:30K. Polak1.5711126113J. Puk2.255101191LAug 3 · 09:08K. Polak1.73861171J. Mejzlik2.0011116113
J. Seeman10
WSep 17 · 12:29P. Moulis1.731161111112J. Seeman2.00311138133LSep 17 · 11:30J. Seeman1.731311101562J. Jnr2.0011131213113LSep 17 · 10:30J. Seeman1.5711791132L. Krutina2.25811119113WSep 17 · 09:30J. Seeman2.1041115113P. Moulis1.671191351WSep 13 · 16:59J. Seeman1.44101111123L. Krutina2.631288101WSep 13 · 16:00L. Krutina1.91491181J. Seeman1.8011118113LSep 13 · 15:00M. Holub2.75111171133J. Seeman1.40491111112WSep 13 · 13:30M. Snizek2.20137641J. Seeman1.6111111193WAug 9 · 08:33J. Seeman2.2011119133K. Polak1.617811111LAug 9 · 05:30K. Polak1.5011117113J. Seeman2.50651181
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