TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12356985
Played Aug 4Finished
Karel Polak
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
311115511116911
Pavel Moulis
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:17 and never touched — 60.5% is still 60.5%
Graded at full timeKarel Polak to win
60.5%
60.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingKarel Polak above · Pavel Moulis below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 83 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Karel Polak at 60.5%
83 points played in total.
H2H Karel Polak 7–2 Pavel Moulis Pavel Moulis has won 2 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:17What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Polak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-2 in 9
Polak
Wrong
gap of 5 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Polak 1439 vs Moulis 1359
Polak
Wrong
both rated, 80 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Polak 60% vs Moulis 40%
Polak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Polak 60% vs Moulis 30%
Polak
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Polak +2 · Moulis -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Polak) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPolak 1.44 / Moulis 2.63
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Polak)-2.5pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #12356985
Polak1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite59% won 32 of 54
Up 2–0, closes it100% 15 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it80% 20 of 25
Moulis2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog46% won 21 of 46
Down 0–1, comes back25% 6 of 24
Down 0–2, comes back14% 2 of 14
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomePolak7wins
AwayMoulis2wins
3 of 9 to a deciderPolak leads 7–2, and 3 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePolak100%5 of 5
AwayMoulis50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Polak5Moulis4n = 9Polak took 5 of 9
S2Polak7Moulis2n = 9Polak took 7 of 9
S3Polak5Moulis4n = 9Polak took 5 of 9
S4Polak5Moulis2n = 7Polak took 5 of 7
S5Polak2Moulis1n = 3Polak took 2 of 3
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home222%
3–1Four sets, home333%
3–2Decider, home222%
2–3Decider, away111%
1–3Four sets, away111%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 9 meetings
MetricPolakMoulisP − MBasisWins72+5in 9 meetingsFirst set54+1of 9Avg pointsper match41.335.8+5.5per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPolakMoulisBasisWin rate · lifetime157 / 310 vs 213 / 45550.7%46.8%157 / 310 vs 213 / 455Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PolakPolak 1.44/Moulis 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62%
Polak · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Moulis won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WAug 4 · 08:44K. Polak48611911113P. Moulis4111511682
LAug 4 · 07:30K. Polak3931151192P. Moulis44115116113
WApr 13 · 05:30K. Polak371511113P. Moulis2013340
WApr 6 · 09:03K. Polak46111311113P. Moulis379111341
WApr 6 · 08:00K. Polak4012116113P. Moulis371091171
WJan 11 · 14:45K. Polak4311911123P. Moulis315115101
WDec 20 · 13:21K. Polak46611117113P. Moulis4511591192
LDec 20 · 12:15K. Polak407911131P. Moulis4511118153
WDec 19 · 11:00K. Polak331111113P. Moulis226790
K. Polak10
LSep 17 · 15:00E. Ondracek2.00137157113K. Polak1.731111131152LSep 17 · 13:30J. Blazek2.251111113K. Polak1.579960LAug 9 · 08:33J. Seeman2.2011119133K. Polak1.617811111LAug 9 · 07:30K. Polak1.83531291K. Jirousek1.83111110113LAug 9 · 06:30K. Polak2.1071181192J. Hanacek1.67117117113WAug 9 · 05:30K. Polak1.5011117113J. Seeman2.50651181WAug 4 · 08:44P. Moulis2.5011511682K. Polak1.50611911113WAug 4 · 06:30K. Polak1.5711126113J. Puk2.255101191WAug 4 · 05:30K. Polak1.671111113J. Seeman2.109590LAug 3 · 09:08K. Polak1.73861171J. Mejzlik2.0011116113
P. Moulis10
LSep 17 · 12:29P. Moulis1.731161111112J. Seeman2.00311138133LSep 17 · 12:00L. Krutina1.911111113P. Moulis1.807680LSep 17 · 11:00J. Jnr2.001111113P. Moulis1.734490LSep 17 · 09:30J. Seeman2.1041115113P. Moulis1.671191351LSep 15 · 12:38M. Obraz1.531111113P. Moulis2.388470WSep 15 · 11:30P. Moulis1.911481116113J. Blazek1.80161181492LSep 15 · 10:30P. Moulis2.25118111252M. Obraz1.57311714113LSep 15 · 09:30P. Moulis1.5731111952J. Jnr2.25119711113WSep 13 · 20:35P. Moulis1.441112123J. Jnr2.63910100LAug 4 · 08:44P. Moulis2.5011511682K. Polak1.50611911113
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