TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13142773
Played Sep 17Finished
Lukas Krutina
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117116118––––
Pavel Moulis
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:22 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLukas Krutina to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Krutina above · Pavel Moulis below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 54 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Lukas Krutina at 54.0%
54 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Krutina 1–3 Pavel Moulis Lukas Krutina has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:22What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Moulis
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Moulis
Wrong
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krutina 1400 vs Moulis 1264
Krutina
Correct
both rated, 136 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krutina 80% vs Moulis 20%
Krutina
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krutina 70% vs Moulis 20%
Krutina
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Krutina +3 · Moulis -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Krutina)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Moulis form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrutina 1.91 / Moulis 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Krutina)+5.5pp
Setka Cup · #13142773
Krutina1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog54% won 27 of 50
Down 0–1, comes back32% 9 of 28
Down 0–2, comes back12% 2 of 17
Moulis1.80
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite57% won 30 of 53
Up 2–0, closes it100% 20 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it79% 26 of 33
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeKrutina1wins
AwayMoulis3wins
3 of 4 to a deciderMoulis leads 3–1, and 3 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrutinan = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayMoulis100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krutina1Moulis3n = 4Moulis took 3 of 4
S2Krutina1Moulis3n = 4Moulis took 3 of 4
S3Krutina2Moulis2n = 4split evenly
S4Krutina2Moulis1n = 3Krutina took 2 of 3
S5Krutina1Moulis2n = 3Moulis took 2 of 3
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away250%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricKrutinaMoulisK − MBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set13−2of 4Avg pointsper match39.543.2−3.7per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrutinaMoulisBasisWin rate · lifetime114 / 219 vs 194 / 43952.1%44.2%114 / 219 vs 194 / 439Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.638.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrutinaKrutina 1.91/Moulis 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Krutina · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Krutina won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WApr 15 · 14:45L. Krutina49115119133P. Moulis45811411112
LFeb 4 · 16:30L. Krutina3926111192P. Moulis47111168113
LJun 11 · 16:10L. Krutina4681181182P. Moulis46119114113
LJun 11 · 15:15L. Krutina2458110P. Moulis351111133
L. Krutina10
WSep 17 · 10:30J. Seeman1.5711791132L. Krutina2.25811119113WSep 17 · 10:00J. Jnr2.10116761L. Krutina1.6791111113WSep 16 · 09:03M. Cmil1.9191191192L. Krutina1.80119117113LSep 16 · 08:00L. Krutina1.8012113852M. Cmil1.911061111113WSep 16 · 06:30M. Obraz1.6712118962L. Krutina2.101071111113WSep 16 · 06:00P. Cizek2.108670L. Krutina1.671111113LSep 13 · 16:59J. Seeman1.44101111123L. Krutina2.631288101LSep 13 · 16:00L. Krutina1.91491181J. Seeman1.8011118113WSep 13 · 14:30M. Snizek1.61116101162L. Krutina2.20811125103WSep 13 · 14:00M. Holub1.911183131L. Krutina1.8091111153
P. Moulis10
LSep 17 · 12:29P. Moulis1.731161111112J. Seeman2.00311138133LSep 17 · 11:00J. Jnr2.001111113P. Moulis1.734490LSep 17 · 09:30J. Seeman2.1041115113P. Moulis1.671191351LSep 15 · 12:38M. Obraz1.531111113P. Moulis2.388470WSep 15 · 11:30P. Moulis1.911481116113J. Blazek1.80161181492LSep 15 · 10:30P. Moulis2.25118111252M. Obraz1.57311714113LSep 15 · 09:30P. Moulis1.5731111952J. Jnr2.25119711113WSep 13 · 20:35P. Moulis1.441112123J. Jnr2.63910100LSep 13 · 20:00J. Hanacek1.4411117113P. Moulis2.63891161LSep 13 · 19:00J. Jnr2.501611113P. Moulis1.5014660
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