TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13146195
Played Sep 17Finished
Pavel Moulis
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11361111131181113
Jan Seeman
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
How it is goingPavel Moulis above · Jan Seeman below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-13
Point 98 set 5, 11-13
98 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Moulis 10–4 Jan Seeman Jan Seeman has won 4 of their 14 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Seeman beat Moulis 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Moulis)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Moulis form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMoulis 1.73 / Seeman 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Moulis)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13146195
Moulis1.73
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite57% won 30 of 53
Up 2–0, closes it100% 20 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it79% 26 of 33
Seeman2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 35 of 87
Down 0–1, comes back28% 13 of 47
Down 0–2, comes back10% 2 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMoulis6wins
AwaySeeman4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMoulis leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMoulis71.4%5 of 7
AwaySeeman66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Moulis7Seeman3n = 10Moulis took 7 of 10
S2Moulis5Seeman5n = 10split evenly
S3Moulis6Seeman4n = 10Moulis took 6 of 10
S4Moulis6Seeman3n = 9Moulis took 6 of 9
S5Moulis1Seeman3n = 4Seeman took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMoulisSeemanM − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match43.537.9+5.6per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMoulisSeemanBasisWin rate · lifetime194 / 440 vs 129 / 27244.1%47.4%194 / 440 vs 129 / 272Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.239.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MoulisMoulis 1.73/Seeman 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Moulis · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Seeman won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 17 · 09:30P. Moulis381191351J. Seeman4141115113
WAug 30 · 11:00P. Moulis4211911113J. Seeman30811381
WAug 29 · 20:34P. Moulis3851111113J. Seeman31118481
WAug 29 · 19:00P. Moulis331111113J. Seeman185580
WAug 13 · 05:30P. Moulis531171113113J. Seeman4661171572
WAug 11 · 08:00P. Moulis4311119123J. Seeman335711101
LAug 4 · 07:00P. Moulis4276111172J. Seeman43111128113
LAug 1 · 19:00P. Moulis60911131892J. Seeman621191516113
WJul 24 · 17:30P. Moulis4111118113J. Seeman29791121
LJul 23 · 10:30P. Moulis45119113112J. Seeman46711411133
P. Moulis10
LSep 17 · 12:00L. Krutina1.911111113P. Moulis1.807680LSep 17 · 11:00J. Jnr2.001111113P. Moulis1.734490LSep 17 · 09:30J. Seeman2.1041115113P. Moulis1.671191351LSep 15 · 12:38M. Obraz1.531111113P. Moulis2.388470WSep 15 · 11:30P. Moulis1.911481116113J. Blazek1.80161181492LSep 15 · 10:30P. Moulis2.25118111252M. Obraz1.57311714113LSep 15 · 09:30P. Moulis1.5731111952J. Jnr2.25119711113WSep 13 · 20:35P. Moulis1.441112123J. Jnr2.63910100LSep 13 · 20:00J. Hanacek1.4411117113P. Moulis2.63891161LSep 13 · 19:00J. Jnr2.501611113P. Moulis1.5014660
J. Seeman10
LSep 17 · 11:30J. Seeman1.731311101562J. Jnr2.0011131213113LSep 17 · 10:30J. Seeman1.5711791132L. Krutina2.25811119113WSep 17 · 09:30J. Seeman2.1041115113P. Moulis1.671191351WSep 13 · 16:59J. Seeman1.44101111123L. Krutina2.631288101WSep 13 · 16:00L. Krutina1.91491181J. Seeman1.8011118113LSep 13 · 15:00M. Holub2.75111171133J. Seeman1.40491111112WSep 13 · 13:30M. Snizek2.20137641J. Seeman1.6111111193WSep 12 · 21:03J. Jnr2.20111012772J. Seeman1.619121011113WSep 12 · 19:30J. Mares2.7514280J. Seeman1.401611113WSep 12 · 19:00J. Seeman1.91611912113J. Jnr1.801171110102
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