TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13139510
Played Sep 16Finished
Marcel Cmil
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
911119911117911
Lukas Krutina
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
How it is goingMarcel Cmil above · Lukas Krutina below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 98 set 5, 9-11
98 points played in total.
H2H Marcel Cmil 27–23 Lukas Krutina Lukas Krutina has won 23 of their 50 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Cmil beat Krutina 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Krutina)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krutina form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCmil 1.91 / Krutina 1.80
Signal prob.45% / 56%
Edge (Krutina)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13139510
Cmil1.91
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog48% won 57 of 120
Down 0–1, comes back29% 19 of 66
Down 0–2, comes back14% 6 of 42
Krutina1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite53% won 30 of 57
Up 2–0, closes it93% 14 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it72% 21 of 29
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCmil6wins
AwayKrutina4wins
6 of 10 to a deciderCmil leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCmil80%4 of 5
AwayKrutina60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cmil5Krutina5n = 10split evenly
S2Cmil5Krutina5n = 10split evenly
S3Cmil6Krutina4n = 10Cmil took 6 of 10
S4Cmil4Krutina5n = 9Krutina took 5 of 9
S5Cmil4Krutina2n = 6Cmil took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricCmilKrutinaC − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.941.0+0.9per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCmilKrutinaBasisWin rate · lifetime366 / 669 vs 111 / 21654.7%51.4%366 / 669 vs 111 / 216Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.739.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrutinaCmil 1.91/Krutina 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.5%
Krutina · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Krutina won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 16 · 08:00M. Cmil491061111113L. Krutina3912113852
WSep 5 · 13:08M. Cmil49791111113L. Krutina4711119972
LSep 5 · 10:00M. Cmil4711811892L. Krutina51911911113
LSep 3 · 08:00M. Cmil387111191L. Krutina4211137113
WJun 27 · 16:00M. Cmil45111193113L. Krutina4468111182
LJun 22 · 10:30M. Cmil4591171172L. Krutina51119119113
WJun 13 · 13:45M. Cmil331111113L. Krutina196850
WJun 8 · 06:00M. Cmil46111167113L. Krutina4588111172
LJun 4 · 08:49M. Cmil27471151L. Krutina3911116113
WJun 4 · 07:45M. Cmil4011117113L. Krutina33871171
M. Cmil10
WSep 16 · 08:00L. Krutina1.8012113852M. Cmil1.911061111113WSep 16 · 07:00P. Cizek2.3891112862M. Cmil1.531171011113WSep 16 · 05:30M. Obraz1.576890M. Cmil2.251111113LSep 8 · 20:58M. Cmil1.831011111392J. Jnr1.831271311113WSep 8 · 20:00J. Jnr1.80511851M. Cmil1.9111711113WSep 8 · 19:00M. Vydra1.61121191252M. Cmil2.201091114113LSep 8 · 17:30V. Coubal2.251111210113M. Cmil1.5764111232WSep 5 · 13:08L. Krutina1.8511119972M. Cmil1.85791111113WSep 5 · 11:30A. Akopyan2.253650M. Cmil1.571111113WSep 5 · 11:00M. Cmil2.00951111113M. Holub1.7311119562
L. Krutina10
LSep 16 · 08:00L. Krutina1.8012113852M. Cmil1.911061111113WSep 16 · 06:30M. Obraz1.6712118962L. Krutina2.101071111113WSep 16 · 06:00P. Cizek2.108670L. Krutina1.671111113LSep 13 · 16:59J. Seeman1.44101111123L. Krutina2.631288101LSep 13 · 16:00L. Krutina1.91491181J. Seeman1.8011118113WSep 13 · 14:30M. Snizek1.61116101162L. Krutina2.20811125103WSep 13 · 14:00M. Holub1.911183131L. Krutina1.8091111153WSep 9 · 09:09M. Holub1.83511871L. Krutina1.8311611113WSep 9 · 07:30L. Krutina2.0091111113F. Fryml1.73115481LSep 5 · 13:08L. Krutina1.8511119972M. Cmil1.85791111113
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