TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13136398
Played Sep 16Finished
Martin Obraz
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611811911––––
Marcel Cmil
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:09 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeMartin Obraz to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMartin Obraz above · Marcel Cmil below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 56 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Martin Obraz at 58.9%
56 points played in total.
H2H Martin Obraz 2–1 Marcel Cmil Marcel Cmil has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:09What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Obraz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Obraz 1339 vs Cmil 1384
Cmil
Correct
both rated, 46 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Obraz 40% vs Cmil 60%
Cmil
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Obraz 30% vs Cmil 60%
Cmil
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Obraz +1 · Cmil -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Obraz)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cmil form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsObraz 1.57 / Cmil 2.25
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Obraz)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13136398
Obraz1.57
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 17 of 28
Up 2–0, closes it100% 10 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it92% 12 of 13
Cmil2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog48% won 57 of 120
Down 0–1, comes back29% 19 of 66
Down 0–2, comes back14% 6 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeObraz2wins
AwayCmil1wins
2 of 3 to a deciderObraz leads 2–1, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Obraz1Cmil2n = 3Cmil took 2 of 3
S2Obraz3Cmil0n = 3Obraz took 3 of 3
S3Obraz1Cmil2n = 3Cmil took 2 of 3
S4Obraz2Cmil1n = 3Obraz took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricObrazCmilO − CBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match43.740.7+3.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricObrazCmilBasisWin rate · lifetime154 / 352 vs 368 / 67843.8%54.3%154 / 352 vs 368 / 678Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.139.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ObrazObraz 1.57/Cmil 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Obraz · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Cmil won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LMay 8 · 09:28M. Obraz46101161272M. Cmil531291110113
WMar 30 · 16:58M. Obraz43711122113M. Cmil45114101192
WMar 30 · 16:00M. Obraz4211119113M. Cmil24821131
M. Obraz10
LSep 16 · 06:30M. Obraz1.6712118962L. Krutina2.101071111113WSep 15 · 12:38M. Obraz1.531111113P. Moulis2.388470LSep 15 · 12:00M. Obraz1.737114151J. Jnr2.0011411173WSep 15 · 10:30P. Moulis2.25118111252M. Obraz1.57311714113LSep 15 · 10:00J. Blazek1.7311119113M. Obraz2.00591191LJun 17 · 09:08J. Puk1.91411127113M. Obraz1.80114101142LJun 17 · 08:00M. Obraz1.739101191J. Puk2.0011129113LJun 17 · 06:30O. Plyska1.501311113M. Obraz2.5011760WJun 17 · 06:00J. Hanacek1.6199111262M. Obraz2.201111910113LJun 16 · 08:58M. Obraz2.5011711882O. Plyska1.50611311113
M. Cmil10
LSep 8 · 20:58M. Cmil1.831011111392J. Jnr1.831271311113WSep 8 · 20:00J. Jnr1.80511851M. Cmil1.9111711113WSep 8 · 19:00M. Vydra1.61121191252M. Cmil2.201091114113LSep 8 · 17:30V. Coubal2.251111210113M. Cmil1.5764111232WSep 5 · 13:08L. Krutina1.8511119972M. Cmil1.85791111113WSep 5 · 11:30A. Akopyan2.253650M. Cmil1.571111113WSep 5 · 11:00M. Cmil2.00951111113M. Holub1.7311119562LSep 5 · 10:00M. Cmil1.8311811892L. Krutina1.83911911113WSep 3 · 08:34M. Cmil1.50312711113J. Vrnak2.50111011562LSep 3 · 08:00M. Cmil1.807111191L. Krutina1.9111137113
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