TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13136467
Played Sep 16Finished
Pavel Cizek
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
9111171210811611
Marcel Cmil
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:28 and never touched — 59.0% is still 59.0%
Graded at full timeMarcel Cmil to win
59.0%
59.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPavel Cizek above · Marcel Cmil below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 96 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Marcel Cmil at 59.0%
96 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Cizek 4–8 Marcel Cmil Pavel Cizek has won 4 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:28What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Cmil
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-8 in 12
Cmil
Correct
gap of 4 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cizek 1324 vs Cmil 1425
Cmil
Correct
both rated, 101 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cizek 20% vs Cmil 60%
Cmil
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cizek 40% vs Cmil 70%
Cmil
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cizek -4 · Cmil +1
Cizek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Cmil) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cizek form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCizek 2.38 / Cmil 1.53
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Cmil)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13136467
Cizek2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog46% won 10 of 22
Down 0–1, comes back18% 2 of 11
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 5
Cmil1.53
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 85 of 143
Up 2–0, closes it91% 39 of 43
Up 1–0, closes it77% 57 of 74
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCizek3wins
AwayCmil7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderCmil leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCizek40%2 of 5
AwayCmil80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cizek5Cmil5n = 10split evenly
S2Cizek6Cmil4n = 10Cizek took 6 of 10
S3Cizek3Cmil7n = 10Cmil took 7 of 10
S4Cizek2Cmil5n = 7Cmil took 5 of 7
S5Cizek1Cmil3n = 4Cmil took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricCizekCmilCizek − CmilBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.138.5−0.4per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCizekCmilBasisWin rate · lifetime31 / 71 vs 366 / 66943.7%54.7%31 / 71 vs 366 / 669Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.839.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CmilCizek 2.38/Cmil 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62%
Cmil · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Cmil won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 16 · 07:00P. Cizek4691112862M. Cmil501171011113
LJul 23 · 09:03P. Cizek381111791M. Cmil4213711113
LJul 23 · 05:30P. Cizek30114871M. Cmil4071111113
WJun 18 · 11:15P. Cizek49911711113M. Cmil3911511572
LJun 4 · 05:15P. Cizek238780M. Cmil331111113
WMay 20 · 10:00P. Cizek43111011113M. Cmil30512761
LApr 22 · 08:59P. Cizek49111198102M. Cmil46931111123
LApr 22 · 05:30P. Cizek4614119572M. Cmil531281111113
LApr 9 · 09:03P. Cizek247980M. Cmil331111113
WApr 9 · 07:00P. Cizek331111113M. Cmil199730
P. Cizek10
WSep 16 · 07:30M. Obraz1.6711116662P. Cizek2.10971111113LSep 16 · 06:00P. Cizek2.108670L. Krutina1.671111113LSep 2 · 12:39P. Moulis2.3811121112113P. Cizek1.5381471472LSep 2 · 11:30P. Cizek2.104680J. Jnr1.671111113LSep 2 · 10:30P. Cizek1.83111112642M. Holub1.83941411113WSep 2 · 09:30P. Cizek1.7391111113P. Moulis2.00112791WAug 26 · 09:09M. Snizek1.5731260P. Cizek2.251114113LAug 26 · 08:00P. Cizek2.1011411262M. Snizek1.67911511113WAug 26 · 06:30J. Krejcik1.676111181P. Cizek2.1011136113LAug 26 · 06:00F. Fryml2.6311611113P. Cizek1.44711671
M. Cmil10
WSep 16 · 08:00L. Krutina1.8012113852M. Cmil1.911061111113WSep 16 · 05:30M. Obraz1.576890M. Cmil2.251111113LSep 8 · 20:58M. Cmil1.831011111392J. Jnr1.831271311113WSep 8 · 20:00J. Jnr1.80511851M. Cmil1.9111711113WSep 8 · 19:00M. Vydra1.61121191252M. Cmil2.201091114113LSep 8 · 17:30V. Coubal2.251111210113M. Cmil1.5764111232WSep 5 · 13:08L. Krutina1.8511119972M. Cmil1.85791111113WSep 5 · 11:30A. Akopyan2.253650M. Cmil1.571111113WSep 5 · 11:00M. Cmil2.00951111113M. Holub1.7311119562LSep 5 · 10:00M. Cmil1.8311811892L. Krutina1.83911911113
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