TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12384691
Played Aug 9Finished
Karel Polak
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
116115711118––
Jan Seeman
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:10 and never touched — 64.5% is still 64.5%
Graded at full timeKarel Polak to win
64.5%
64.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKarel Polak above · Jan Seeman below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 70 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Karel Polak at 64.5%
70 points played in total.
H2H Karel Polak 10–7 Jan Seeman Jan Seeman has won 7 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:10What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Polak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-7 in 17
Polak
Correct
gap of 3 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Polak 1439 vs Seeman 1357
Polak
Correct
both rated, 82 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Polak 60% vs Seeman 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Polak 70% vs Seeman 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Polak +1 · Seeman +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Polak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Seeman form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPolak 1.50 / Seeman 2.50
Signal prob.65% / 36%
Edge (Polak)+2.0pp
Setka Cup · #12384691
Polak1.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 32 of 54
Up 2–0, closes it100% 15 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it80% 20 of 25
Seeman2.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog38% won 26 of 69
Down 0–1, comes back32% 12 of 38
Down 0–2, comes back11% 2 of 18
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePolak6wins
AwaySeeman4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPolak leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePolak83.3%5 of 6
AwaySeeman75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Polak6Seeman4n = 10Polak took 6 of 10
S2Polak7Seeman3n = 10Polak took 7 of 10
S3Polak5Seeman5n = 10split evenly
S4Polak3Seeman2n = 5Polak took 3 of 5
S5Polak1Seeman2n = 3Seeman took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricPolakSeemanP − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.337.30.0per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPolakSeemanBasisWin rate · lifetime157 / 310 vs 134 / 26950.7%49.8%157 / 310 vs 134 / 269Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.439.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PolakPolak 1.50/Seeman 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.5%
Polak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Polak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 4 · 05:30K. Polak331111113J. Seeman239590
WMar 28 · 11:45K. Polak4391211113J. Seeman391110991
LFeb 22 · 21:27K. Polak4412771172J. Seeman521011119113
WFeb 22 · 19:30K. Polak351212113J. Seeman27101070
LFeb 21 · 13:50K. Polak194780J. Seeman331111113
LFeb 21 · 12:45K. Polak163940J. Seeman31111193
LDec 28 · 21:38K. Polak538111310112J. Seeman561191112133
WDec 28 · 20:15K. Polak49131168113J. Seeman46117111162
WDec 14 · 19:45K. Polak48111412113J. Seeman419121461
WDec 12 · 19:00K. Polak331111113J. Seeman259880
K. Polak10
LSep 17 · 15:00E. Ondracek2.00137157113K. Polak1.731111131152LSep 17 · 13:30J. Blazek2.251111113K. Polak1.579960LAug 9 · 08:33J. Seeman2.2011119133K. Polak1.617811111LAug 9 · 07:30K. Polak1.83531291K. Jirousek1.83111110113LAug 9 · 06:30K. Polak2.1071181192J. Hanacek1.67117117113WAug 4 · 08:44P. Moulis2.5011511682K. Polak1.50611911113LAug 4 · 07:30K. Polak1.4431151192P. Moulis2.63115116113WAug 4 · 06:30K. Polak1.5711126113J. Puk2.255101191WAug 4 · 05:30K. Polak1.671111113J. Seeman2.109590LAug 3 · 09:08K. Polak1.73861171J. Mejzlik2.0011116113
J. Seeman10
WSep 17 · 12:29P. Moulis1.731161111112J. Seeman2.00311138133LSep 17 · 11:30J. Seeman1.731311101562J. Jnr2.0011131213113LSep 17 · 10:30J. Seeman1.5711791132L. Krutina2.25811119113WSep 17 · 09:30J. Seeman2.1041115113P. Moulis1.671191351WSep 13 · 16:59J. Seeman1.44101111123L. Krutina2.631288101WSep 13 · 16:00L. Krutina1.91491181J. Seeman1.8011118113LSep 13 · 15:00M. Holub2.75111171133J. Seeman1.40491111112WSep 13 · 13:30M. Snizek2.20137641J. Seeman1.6111111193WAug 9 · 08:33J. Seeman2.2011119133K. Polak1.617811111LAug 4 · 05:30K. Polak1.671111113J. Seeman2.109590
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