TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13142817
Played Sep 17Finished
Evzen Ondracek
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
13117111513711115
Karel Polak
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:25 and never touched — 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeKarel Polak to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingEvzen Ondracek above · Karel Polak below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 15-13
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 104 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Karel Polak at 57.7%
104 points played in total.
H2H Evzen Ondracek 0–2 Karel Polak Evzen Ondracek has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:25What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Polak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-2 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Ondracek 1397 vs Polak 1398
Polak
Wrong
both rated, 2 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ondracek 40% vs Polak 20%
Ondracek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ondracek 50% vs Polak 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Ondracek -2 · Polak -4
Polak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Polak) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Polak form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOndracek 2.00 / Polak 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Polak)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13142817
Ondracek2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog47% won 22 of 47
Down 0–1, comes back22% 6 of 27
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 20
Polak1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite60% won 27 of 45
Up 2–0, closes it100% 14 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it86% 18 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeOndracek0wins
AwayPolak2wins
Polak leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricOndracekPolakO − PBasisWins02−2in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match30.539.5−9.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOndracekPolakBasisWin rate · lifetime108 / 215 vs 158 / 31550.2%50.2%108 / 215 vs 158 / 315Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.738.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PolakOndracek 2.00/Polak 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Polak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Ondracek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LApr 27 · 16:58E. Ondracek199640K. Polak331111113
LApr 27 · 15:00E. Ondracek4271311111K. Polak4611157133
E. Ondracek10
WSep 17 · 15:30J. Blazek2.506650E. Ondracek1.501111113LSep 17 · 14:00E. Ondracek1.536150M. Melisek2.381111113LSep 14 · 16:39J. Hanacek2.101151111113E. Ondracek1.6713117562WSep 14 · 15:30J. Blazek2.38411781E. Ondracek1.5311911113WSep 14 · 15:00E. Ondracek2.101111113J. Hanacek1.678680LSep 14 · 14:00E. Ondracek1.737650L. Tuma2.001111113LAug 27 · 16:59L. Tuma2.751111113E. Ondracek1.409180LAug 27 · 15:30J. Blazek2.63911116113E. Ondracek1.4411391182WAug 27 · 15:00E. Ondracek2.001011129113J. Jnr1.73126101172WAug 27 · 14:00E. Ondracek2.0011811113L. Tuma1.73911581
K. Polak10
WSep 17 · 16:39K. Polak1.73111111113J. Blazek2.00981381WSep 17 · 16:00M. Melisek1.83111111652K. Polak1.83561311113LSep 17 · 13:30J. Blazek2.251111113K. Polak1.579960LAug 9 · 08:33J. Seeman2.2011119133K. Polak1.617811111LAug 9 · 07:30K. Polak1.83531291K. Jirousek1.83111110113LAug 9 · 06:30K. Polak2.1071181192J. Hanacek1.67117117113WAug 9 · 05:30K. Polak1.5011117113J. Seeman2.50651181WAug 4 · 08:44P. Moulis2.5011511682K. Polak1.50611911113LAug 4 · 07:30K. Polak1.4431151192P. Moulis2.63115116113WAug 4 · 06:30K. Polak1.5711126113J. Puk2.255101191
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