TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13142003
Played Sep 17Finished
Evzen Ondracek
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611111511––––
Marian Melisek
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:24 and never touched — 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeEvzen Ondracek to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingEvzen Ondracek above · Marian Melisek below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 1-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 45 set 3, 5-11 — our read held Evzen Ondracek at 58.1%
45 points played in total.
H2H Evzen Ondracek 10–7 Marian Melisek Marian Melisek has won 7 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:24What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Ondracek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-7 in 17
Ondracek
Wrong
gap of 3 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ondracek 1412 vs Melisek 1361
Ondracek
Wrong
both rated, 51 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ondracek 40% vs Melisek 20%
Ondracek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ondracek 50% vs Melisek 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Ondracek -1 · Melisek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Ondracek) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Melisek form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOndracek 1.53 / Melisek 2.38
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Ondracek)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13142003
Ondracek1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite51% won 25 of 49
Up 2–0, closes it86% 12 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it68% 15 of 22
Melisek2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 63 of 149
Down 0–1, comes back24% 18 of 74
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOndracek6wins
AwayMelisek4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderOndracek leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOndracek75%3 of 4
AwayMelisek50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ondracek4Melisek6n = 10Melisek took 6 of 10
S2Ondracek6Melisek4n = 10Ondracek took 6 of 10
S3Ondracek5Melisek5n = 10split evenly
S4Ondracek4Melisek3n = 7Ondracek took 4 of 7
S5Ondracek3Melisek1n = 4Ondracek took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricOndracekMelisekO − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.338.0−0.7per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOndracekMelisekBasisWin rate · lifetime108 / 214 vs 222 / 46350.5%48%108 / 214 vs 222 / 463Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.838.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OndracekOndracek 1.53/Melisek 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.2%
Ondracek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Melisek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 21 · 16:44E. Ondracek42311611113M. Melisek4811811992
LAug 21 · 14:00E. Ondracek229940M. Melisek331111113
WJun 5 · 15:30E. Ondracek52811139113M. Melisek47115111192
WOct 22 · 17:05E. Ondracek331111113M. Melisek237970
WOct 22 · 15:00E. Ondracek3711113123M. Melisek346711101
LOct 1 · 16:56E. Ondracek41115101142M. Melisek45711124113
LOct 1 · 16:00E. Ondracek32951171M. Melisek4211119113
WSep 15 · 16:00E. Ondracek44381111113M. Melisek4311119842
WJul 12 · 09:05E. Ondracek331111113M. Melisek215970
LJul 12 · 08:00E. Ondracek371012961M. Melisek44121011113
E. Ondracek10
LSep 14 · 16:39J. Hanacek2.101151111113E. Ondracek1.6713117562WSep 14 · 15:30J. Blazek2.38411781E. Ondracek1.5311911113WSep 14 · 15:00E. Ondracek2.101111113J. Hanacek1.678680LSep 14 · 14:00E. Ondracek1.737650L. Tuma2.001111113LAug 27 · 16:59L. Tuma2.751111113E. Ondracek1.409180LAug 27 · 15:30J. Blazek2.63911116113E. Ondracek1.4411391182WAug 27 · 15:00E. Ondracek2.001011129113J. Jnr1.73126101172WAug 27 · 14:00E. Ondracek2.0011811113L. Tuma1.73911581WAug 21 · 16:44E. Ondracek1.83311611113M. Melisek1.8311811992LAug 21 · 16:00E. Ondracek1.7381161182J. Jnr2.00119115113
M. Melisek10
WSep 17 · 14:30J. Blazek2.20571231M. Melisek1.61111110113LSep 16 · 12:29M. Melisek1.916101111102M. Hasman1.80111268123WSep 16 · 11:30M. Hasman1.80412691M. Melisek1.91111011113LSep 16 · 11:00M. Melisek2.258770A. Dvoracek1.571111113LSep 16 · 10:00M. Melisek2.10511591M. Vorel1.6711511113LSep 11 · 12:39F. Schmidtmayer1.4481111113M. Melisek2.63119741LSep 11 · 11:30M. Melisek2.38117791F. Schmidtmayer1.5381111113LSep 11 · 10:30M. Melisek2.107101191J. Hanacek1.6711126113WSep 11 · 09:30M. Melisek2.6351111113A. Dvoracek1.44117461LAug 21 · 16:44E. Ondracek1.83311611113M. Melisek1.8311811992
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