TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13147634
Played Sep 17Finished
Karel Polak
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1191181113118––
Jan Blazek
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
How it is goingKarel Polak above · Jan Blazek below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 82 set 4, 11-8
82 points played in total.
H2H Karel Polak 5–3 Jan Blazek Jan Blazek has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Blazek beat Polak 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Polak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Polak form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPolak 1.73 / Blazek 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Polak)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13147634
Polak1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite60% won 27 of 45
Up 2–0, closes it100% 14 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it86% 18 of 21
Blazek2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 51 of 133
Down 0–1, comes back21% 16 of 77
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomePolak5wins
AwayBlazek3wins
3 of 8 to a deciderPolak leads 5–3, and 3 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePolak80%4 of 5
AwayBlazek66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Polak5Blazek3n = 8Polak took 5 of 8
S2Polak2Blazek6n = 8Blazek took 6 of 8
S3Polak5Blazek3n = 8Polak took 5 of 8
S4Polak3Blazek1n = 4Polak took 3 of 4
S5Polak2Blazek1n = 3Polak took 2 of 3
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home225%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home225%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away225%
These 8 meetings
MetricPolakBlazekP − BBasisWins53+2in 8 meetingsFirst set53+2of 8Avg pointsper match38.238.8−0.6per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPolakBlazekBasisWin rate · lifetime159 / 317 vs 167 / 38450.2%43.5%159 / 317 vs 167 / 384Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.439.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PolakPolak 1.73/Blazek 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.1%
Polak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Polak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LSep 17 · 13:30K. Polak249960J. Blazek331111113
WApr 23 · 10:00K. Polak49591311113J. Blazek48111111962
LJan 23 · 14:30K. Polak32139100J. Blazek381511123
WJan 20 · 17:45K. Polak4211711133J. Blazek409119111
WJan 20 · 15:15K. Polak331111113J. Blazek229490
WJan 14 · 14:30K. Polak43115511113J. Blazek4881111992
WDec 18 · 22:15K. Polak371112143J. Blazek31910120
LDec 18 · 21:00K. Polak4611811972J. Blazek50811911113
K. Polak10
WSep 17 · 16:00M. Melisek1.83111111652K. Polak1.83561311113LSep 17 · 15:00E. Ondracek2.00137157113K. Polak1.731111131152LSep 17 · 13:30J. Blazek2.251111113K. Polak1.579960LAug 9 · 08:33J. Seeman2.2011119133K. Polak1.617811111LAug 9 · 07:30K. Polak1.83531291K. Jirousek1.83111110113LAug 9 · 06:30K. Polak2.1071181192J. Hanacek1.67117117113WAug 9 · 05:30K. Polak1.5011117113J. Seeman2.50651181WAug 4 · 08:44P. Moulis2.5011511682K. Polak1.50611911113LAug 4 · 07:30K. Polak1.4431151192P. Moulis2.63115116113WAug 4 · 06:30K. Polak1.5711126113J. Puk2.255101191
J. Blazek10
LSep 17 · 15:30J. Blazek2.506650E. Ondracek1.501111113LSep 17 · 14:30J. Blazek2.20571231M. Melisek1.61111110113WSep 17 · 13:30J. Blazek2.251111113K. Polak1.579960WSep 15 · 13:08J. Jnr1.739990J. Blazek2.001111113LSep 15 · 11:30P. Moulis1.911481116113J. Blazek1.80161181492WSep 15 · 11:00J. Blazek2.25811912113J. Jnr1.57117111072WSep 15 · 10:00J. Blazek1.7311119113M. Obraz2.00591191LSep 14 · 17:10L. Tuma1.401111113J. Blazek2.755880LSep 14 · 15:30J. Blazek2.38411781E. Ondracek1.5311911113WSep 14 · 14:30J. Blazek3.0011118113L. Tuma1.36461151
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