TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13141986
Played Sep 17Finished
Marian Melisek
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1151161113611511
Karel Polak
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:12 and never touched — 60.9% is still 60.9%
Graded at full timeKarel Polak to win
60.9%
60.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMarian Melisek above · Karel Polak below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 90 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Karel Polak at 60.9%
90 points played in total.
H2H Marian Melisek 3–6 Karel Polak Marian Melisek has won 3 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:12What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Polak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-6 in 9
Polak
Correct
gap of 3 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Melisek 1389 vs Polak 1388
Melisek
Wrong
both rated, 2 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melisek 60% vs Polak 0%
Melisek
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melisek 40% vs Polak 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Melisek +2 · Polak -5
Polak
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Polak) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Polak form (0%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelisek 1.83 / Polak 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Polak)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13141986
Melisek1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Polak1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeMelisek3wins
AwayPolak6wins
2 of 9 to a deciderPolak leads 6–3, and 2 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMelisek100%3 of 3
AwayPolak100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melisek3Polak6n = 9Polak took 6 of 9
S2Melisek5Polak4n = 9Melisek took 5 of 9
S3Melisek7Polak2n = 9Melisek took 7 of 9
S4Melisek1Polak4n = 5Polak took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home333%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away222%
1–3Four sets, away333%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricMelisekPolakM − PBasisWins36−3in 9 meetingsFirst set36−3of 9Avg pointsper match34.634.3+0.3per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelisekPolakBasisWin rate · lifetime223 / 461 vs 158 / 31648.4%50%223 / 461 vs 158 / 316Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.938.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PolakMelisek 1.83/Polak 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Polak · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Polak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LJan 20 · 16:15M. Melisek464111110102K. Polak49116812123
LDec 20 · 11:15M. Melisek165560K. Polak331111113
LDec 19 · 14:10M. Melisek381081191K. Polak4012116113
LDec 19 · 11:30M. Melisek36981181K. Polak4111118113
LNov 26 · 18:05M. Melisek4487121162K. Polak49111110893
WNov 26 · 16:00M. Melisek331111113K. Polak184590
WNov 16 · 17:45M. Melisek351311113K. Polak2111730
LNov 16 · 15:30M. Melisek30511951K. Polak4011711113
WNov 9 · 15:00M. Melisek331111113K. Polak187380
M. Melisek10
LSep 17 · 17:09M. Melisek1.80481181E. Ondracek1.9111115113WSep 17 · 14:30J. Blazek2.20571231M. Melisek1.61111110113WSep 17 · 14:00E. Ondracek1.536150M. Melisek2.381111113LSep 16 · 12:29M. Melisek1.916101111102M. Hasman1.80111268123WSep 16 · 11:30M. Hasman1.80412691M. Melisek1.91111011113LSep 16 · 11:00M. Melisek2.258770A. Dvoracek1.571111113LSep 16 · 10:00M. Melisek2.10511591M. Vorel1.6711511113LSep 11 · 12:39F. Schmidtmayer1.4481111113M. Melisek2.63119741LSep 11 · 11:30M. Melisek2.38117791F. Schmidtmayer1.5381111113LSep 11 · 10:30M. Melisek2.107101191J. Hanacek1.6711126113
K. Polak10
WSep 17 · 16:39K. Polak1.73111111113J. Blazek2.00981381LSep 17 · 15:00E. Ondracek2.00137157113K. Polak1.731111131152LSep 17 · 13:30J. Blazek2.251111113K. Polak1.579960LAug 9 · 08:33J. Seeman2.2011119133K. Polak1.617811111LAug 9 · 07:30K. Polak1.83531291K. Jirousek1.83111110113LAug 9 · 06:30K. Polak2.1071181192J. Hanacek1.67117117113WAug 9 · 05:30K. Polak1.5011117113J. Seeman2.50651181WAug 4 · 08:44P. Moulis2.5011511682K. Polak1.50611911113LAug 4 · 07:30K. Polak1.4431151192P. Moulis2.63115116113WAug 4 · 06:30K. Polak1.5711126113J. Puk2.255101191
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