TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Petr Fiser
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
114118117––––
Karel Polak
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:41 and never touched — 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timePetr Fiser to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr Fiser above · Karel Polak below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 52 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Petr Fiser at 57.7%
52 points played in total.
H2H Petr Fiser 1–0 Karel Polak Karel Polak has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:41What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Fiser
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Fiser 1354 vs Polak 1402
Polak
Wrong
both rated, 48 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fiser 80% vs Polak 40%
Fiser
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fiser 70% vs Polak 40%
Fiser
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Fiser +2 · Polak +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Fiser) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fiser form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFiser 1.73 / Polak 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Fiser)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13166507
Fiser1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 5 days ago (Sep 16)
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite50% won 11 of 22
Up 2–0, closes it100% 9 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it67% 10 of 15
Polak2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Sep 17)
Won last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog61% won 33 of 54
Down 0–1, comes back37% 7 of 19
Down 0–2, comes back31% 4 of 13
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeFiser1wins
AwayPolak0wins
Fiser leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricFiserPolakF − PBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match43.033.0+10.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFiserPolakBasisWin rate · lifetime69 / 170 vs 160 / 31840.6%50.3%69 / 170 vs 160 / 318Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.438.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FiserFiser 1.73/Polak 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Fiser · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Fiser won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WJan 14 · 16:30P. Fiser43111110113K. Polak33481291
P. Fiser10
WSep 21 · 15:30E. Ondracek1.4431250P. Fiser2.631114113LSep 21 · 15:00P. Fiser1.915440M. Melisek1.801111113WSep 16 · 16:33P. Fiser1.3391118113A. Skyba3.251171681WSep 16 · 15:30A. Skyba2.63841191P. Fiser1.4411119113LSep 16 · 15:00P. Fiser1.7311611672A. Akopyan2.00711711113WSep 16 · 14:00P. Fiser1.571110117113V. Coubal2.2571261182WJul 18 · 12:28M. Holub2.506680P. Fiser1.501111113WJul 18 · 11:30P. Fiser2.0041211113M. Holub1.731110381LJul 18 · 10:30P. Fiser2.50971161J. Jnr1.5011118113WJul 18 · 09:30P. Fiser2.2511411133J. Seeman1.579113111
K. Polak10
LSep 21 · 14:30E. Ondracek1.83911137123K. Polak1.831181111102WSep 17 · 16:39K. Polak1.73111111113J. Blazek2.00981381WSep 17 · 16:00M. Melisek1.83111111652K. Polak1.83561311113LSep 17 · 15:00E. Ondracek2.00137157113K. Polak1.731111131152LSep 17 · 13:30J. Blazek2.251111113K. Polak1.579960LAug 9 · 08:33J. Seeman2.2011119133K. Polak1.617811111LAug 9 · 07:30K. Polak1.83531291K. Jirousek1.83111110113LAug 9 · 06:30K. Polak2.1071181192J. Hanacek1.67117117113WAug 9 · 05:30K. Polak1.5011117113J. Seeman2.50651181WAug 4 · 08:44P. Moulis2.5011511682K. Polak1.50611911113
Upcoming Matches
P. Fiser
Nothing scheduled
K. Polak
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